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A Dynamic Extension of the Period Life Table

Author

Listed:
  • Frank T. Denton

    (McMaster University)

  • Byron G. Spencer

    (McMaster University)

Abstract

The standard period life table is based entirely on the death probabilities of the given period. Popular (not expert) usage of life expectancies from a period table typically ignores the fact that the expectancies make no allowance for future declines in mortality rates. But the historical record provides overwhelming evidence to suggest that declines will continue, and the period expectancies can therefore be misleading, in a practical context. We propose a “dynamic” extension of the period table that draws out the implications, for survivorship and life expectancy, of observed rates of change of death probabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2011. "A Dynamic Extension of the Period Life Table," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 24(34), pages 831-854.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:24:y:2011:i:34
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2011.24.34
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shripad Tuljapurkar & Nan Li & Carl Boe, 2000. "A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries," Nature, Nature, vol. 405(6788), pages 789-792, June.
    2. Nico Keilman, 2008. "European Demographic Forecasts Have Not Become More Accurate Over the Past 25 Years," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(1), pages 137-153, March.
    3. John Bongaarts, 2005. "Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(1), pages 23-49, February.
    4. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    5. Frank Denton & Christine Feaver & Byron Spencer, 2005. "Time series analysis and stochastic forecasting: An econometric study of mortality and life expectancy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 203-227, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    life expectancy; period life expectancy; dynamic extension;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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