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Cited by:

  1. Philip Hans Franses, 2021. "Modeling Judgment in Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 401-417, December.
  2. Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
  3. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2015. "Robust approaches to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 99-112.
  4. Nicholas Taylor, 2014. "Economic forecast quality: information timeliness and data vintage effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 145-174, February.
  5. repec:zbw:rwirep:0382 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Rickard Nyman & Paul Ormerod, 2017. "Predicting Economic Recessions Using Machine Learning Algorithms," Papers 1701.01428, arXiv.org.
  7. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "How biased are U.S. government forecasts of the federal debt?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 543-559.
  8. Kovacs Kevin & Boulier Bryan & Stekler Herman, 2017. "Nowcasting: Identifying German Cyclical Turning Points," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 237(4), pages 329-341, August.
  9. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Waldhof, Gaby, 2017. "Theories, techniques and the formation of German business cycle forecasts. Evidence from a survey among professional forecasters," Working Papers 2, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
  10. Makridakis, Spyros & Hyndman, Rob J. & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2020. "Forecasting in social settings: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 15-28.
  11. David Tucket & Antoine Mandel & Diana Mangalagiu & Allen Abramson & Jochen Hinkel & Konstantinos Katsikopoulos & Alan Kirman & Thierry Malleret & Igor Mozetic & Paul Ormerod & Robert Elliot Smith & To, 2015. "Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making: A Manifesto for a Research Agenda," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-02057279, HAL.
  12. Ericsson, Neil R., 2016. "Eliciting GDP forecasts from the FOMC’s minutes around the financial crisis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-583.
  13. Hector M. Zarate-Solano & Daniel R. Zapata-Sanabria, 2017. "Clustering and forecasting inflation expectations using the World Economic Survey: the case of the 2014 oil price shock on inflation targeting countries," Borradores de Economia 993, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  14. Rostami-Tabar, Bahman & Ali, Mohammad M. & Hong, Tao & Hyndman, Rob J. & Porter, Michael D. & Syntetos, Aris, 2022. "Forecasting for social good," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1245-1257.
  15. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin, 2013. "When do the USDA forecasters make mistakes?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(36), pages 5086-5103, December.
  16. Döpke Jörg & Fritsche Ulrich & Waldhof Gabi, 2019. "Theories, Techniques and the Formation of German Business Cycle Forecasts : Evidence from a survey of professional forecasters," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(2), pages 203-241, April.
  17. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:91:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Tara M. Sinclair & Fred Joutz & Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts," Working Papers 2008-010, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  19. Rickard Nyman & Paul Ormerod, 2020. "Understanding the Great Recession Using Machine Learning Algorithms," Papers 2001.02115, arXiv.org.
  20. Heilemann, Ullrich & Stekler, Herman, 2007. "Introduction to "The future of macroeconomic forecasting"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 159-165.
  21. Ulrich Fritsche & Artur Tarassow, 2017. "Vergleichende Evaluation der Konjunkturprognosen des Instituts für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung an der Hans-Böckler-Stiftung für den Zeitraum 2005-2014," IMK Studies 54-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  22. Krkoska, Libor & Teksoz, Utku, 2009. "How reliable are forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for countries with limited coverage?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 376-388, December.
  23. Glocker, Christian & Kaniovski, Serguei, 2020. "Structural modeling and forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 101874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. Messina, Jeffrey D. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman, 2015. "What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 54-62.
  25. Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2012. "Using Internet Data to Account for Special Events in Economic Forecasting," Ruhr Economic Papers 382, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  26. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.
  27. Lahiri, Kajal & Wang, J. George, 2013. "Evaluating probability forecasts for GDP declines using alternative methodologies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 175-190.
  28. Singleton, Carl & Reade, J. James & Brown, Alasdair, 2020. "Going with your gut: The (In)accuracy of forecast revisions in a football score prediction game," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
  29. repec:wrk:wrkemf:33 is not listed on IDEAS
  30. Torsten Schmidt & Simeon Vosen, 2012. "Using Internet Data to Account for Special Events in Economic Forecasting," Ruhr Economic Papers 0382, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  31. Natalia Shmatko & Alina Lavrynenko & Dirk Meissner, 2017. "Communicating Company Innovation Culture: Assessment Through Job Advertisements Analysis," HSE Working papers WP BRP 74/STI/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  32. Ullrich Heilemann & Karsten Müller, 2018. "Wenig Unterschiede – Zur Treffsicherheit Internationaler Prognosen und Prognostiker [Few differences—on the accuracy of international forecasts and forecaster]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 12(3), pages 195-233, December.
  33. Karsten Müller, 2022. "German forecasters’ narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2373-2415, May.
  34. Ager, P. & Kappler, M. & Osterloh, S., 2009. "The accuracy and efficiency of the Consensus Forecasts: A further application and extension of the pooled approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 167-181.
  35. Jones, Jacob T. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman O., 2020. "A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1478-1487.
  36. Croushore Dean, 2010. "An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts from Surveys Using Real-Time Data," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, May.
  37. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 760-769.
  38. Robert Goldfarb & H. O. Stekler & Joel David, 2005. "Methodological issues in forecasting: Insights from the egregious business forecast errors of late 1930," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 517-542.
  39. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2007. "Forecast accuracy of the Japanese government: Its year-ahead GDP forecast is too optimistic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 68-85, January.
  40. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 163, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  41. Robert Ewing & David Gruen & John Hawkins, 2005. "Forecasting the macro economy," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 2, pages 11-25, June.
  42. Nathan Goldstein & Ben‐Zion Zilberfarb, 2023. "The closer we get, the better we are?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(2), pages 364-376, April.
  43. Constantinou Anthony Costa & Fenton Norman Elliott, 2012. "Solving the Problem of Inadequate Scoring Rules for Assessing Probabilistic Football Forecast Models," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, March.
  44. Oller, Lars-Erik & Teterukovsky, Alex, 2007. "Quantifying the quality of macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 205-217.
  45. Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James, 2021. "Does judgment improve macroeconomic density forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1247-1260.
  46. Gultekin Isiklar & Kajal Lahiri & Prakash Loungani, 2006. "How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross‐country surveys," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 703-725, September.
  47. G. Kontogeorgos & K. Lambrias, 2022. "Evaluating the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections: The first 20 years," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 213-229, March.
  48. Hamid Baghestani, 2011. "A directional analysis of Federal Reserve predictions of growth in unit labor costs and productivity," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 303-311.
  49. Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2011. "Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 459-469, September.
  50. Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  51. Foltas, Alexander, 2023. "Quantifying priorities in business cycle reports: Analysis of recurring textual patterns around peaks and troughs," Working Papers 44, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
  52. Anqiang Huang & Kin Keung Lai & Han Qiao & Shouyang Wang & Zhenji Zhang, 2018. "Does Interval Knowledge Sharpen Forecasting Models? Evidence from China’s Typical Ports," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(02), pages 467-483, March.
  53. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2023. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  54. Xie, Zixiong & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2016. "Time varying biases and the state of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 716-725.
  55. Chevillon, Guillaume & Hendry, David F., 2005. "Non-parametric direct multi-step estimation for forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 201-218.
  56. Anqiang Huang & Han Qiao & Shouyang Wang & John Liu, 2016. "Improving Forecasting Performance by Exploiting Expert Knowledge: Evidence from Guangzhou Port," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(02), pages 387-401, March.
  57. Higgins, Matthew L. & Mishra, Sagarika, 2014. "State dependent asymmetric loss and the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 627-632.
  58. Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Müller, Karsten, 2019. "Has macroeconomic forecasting changed after the Great Recession? Panel-based evidence on forecast accuracy and forecaster behavior from Germany," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  59. Heilemann, Ullrich & Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?," Technical Reports 2003,31, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  60. Guillaume Chevillon, 2007. "Direct Multi‐Step Estimation And Forecasting," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 746-785, September.
  61. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2003. "Do we make better forecasts these days? A survey amongst academics," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-06, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  62. repec:hal:pseose:hal-02057279 is not listed on IDEAS
  63. Bürgi, Constantin, 2017. "Bias, rationality and asymmetric loss functions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 113-116.
  64. Philip Hans Franses, 2004. "Do We Think We Make Better Forecasts Than in the Past? A Survey of Academics," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 466-468, December.
  65. Daniel Culbertson & Tara Sinclair, 2014. "The Failure of Forecasts in the Great Recession," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(6), pages 34-45.
  66. Loungani, Prakash & Stekler, Herman & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2013. "Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 605-621.
  67. Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Karsten Müller, 2018. "Has Macroeconomic Forecasting changed after the Great Recession? - Panel-based Evidence on Accuracy and Forecaster Behaviour from Germany," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201803, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
  68. Brandt, Patrick T. & Freeman, John R. & Schrodt, Philip A., 2014. "Evaluating forecasts of political conflict dynamics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 944-962.
  69. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas, 2006. "Long-memory forecasting of US monetary indices," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 291-302.
  70. Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Roeger & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2017. "Evaluating Medium Term Forecasting Methods and their Implications for EU Output Gap Calculations," European Economy - Discussion Papers 070, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  71. Moser, Gabriel & Rumler, Fabio & Scharler, Johann, 2007. "Forecasting Austrian inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 470-480, May.
  72. Tara M. Sinclair, 2019. "Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  73. Ildeberta Abreu, 2011. "International organisations’ vs. private analysts’ forecasts: an evaluation," Working Papers w201120, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  74. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2018. "Inflation, real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(42), pages 4540-4555, September.
  75. Giovanni Cicceri & Giuseppe Inserra & Michele Limosani, 2020. "A Machine Learning Approach to Forecast Economic Recessions—An Italian Case Study," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-20, February.
  76. Döpke Jörg & Fritsche Ulrich & Waldhof Gabi, 2019. "Theories, Techniques and the Formation of German Business Cycle Forecasts : Evidence from a survey of professional forecasters," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(2), pages 203-241, April.
  77. Mathy, Gabriel & Stekler, Herman, 2017. "Expectations and forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-time evidence from the business press," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-15.
  78. Krkoska, Libor & Teksoz, Utku, 2007. "Accuracy of GDP growth forecasts for transition countries: Ten years of forecasting assessed," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 29-45.
  79. Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts?," Working Papers 2008-009, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  80. Jakab M., Zoltán & Kovács, Mihály András & Kiss, Gergely, 2006. "Mit tanultunk?. A jegybanki előrejelzések szerepe az inflációs cél követésének első öt évében Magyarországon [What are we studying?. The role of central-bank forecasts in Hungarian inflation target," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1101-1134.
  81. Mitchell, Karlyn & Pearce, Douglas K., 2007. "Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's panel of economists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 840-854, December.
  82. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  83. H.O. Stekler & Huixia Zhang, 2013. "An evaluation of Chinese economic forecasts," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 251-259, November.
  84. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," Working Papers 0686, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  85. Klinger, Sabine & Heilemann, Ullrich, 2005. "Zu wenig Wettbewerb? Zu Stand und Entwicklung der Genauigkeit makroökonomischer Prognosen," Technical Reports 2005,16, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  86. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
  87. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2012. "Evaluating Japanese corporate executives’ forecasts under an asymmetric loss function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 601-603.
  88. Vincze, János & Bíró, Anikó & Elek, Péter, 2007. "Szimulációk és érzékenységvizsgálatok a magyar gazdaság egy középméretű makromodelljével [Simulations and sensitivity analyses with a medium-sized macro model of the Hungarian economy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 774-799.
  89. Huiwen Lai & Eric C. Y. Ng, 2020. "On business cycle forecasting," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 1-26, December.
  90. Sergey V. Smirnov, 2014. "Predicting US Recessions: Does a Wishful Bias Exist?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 77/EC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  91. Fomin, M., 2016. "Business cycles and acquisition policy: Analysis of M&A deals of metallurgical companies," Working Papers 6441, Graduate School of Management, St. Petersburg State University.
  92. Vuchelen, Jef & Gutierrez, Maria-Isabel, 2005. "A direct test of the information content of the OECD growth forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 103-117.
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