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The Failure of Forecasts in the Great Recession

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  • Daniel Culbertson
  • Tara Sinclair

Abstract

Macroeconomic forecasts are used to make decisions by everyone from business leaders to government policymakers. But the forecasts they rely on are most flawed just when they are most needed. The authors present an analysis of the accuracy of forecasts, focusing specifically on the latest recession in the United States. It is fair to conclude that economists completely failed to anticipate the fall in GDP and employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Culbertson & Tara Sinclair, 2014. "The Failure of Forecasts in the Great Recession," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(6), pages 34-45.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:challe:v:57:y:2014:i:6:p:34-45
    DOI: 10.2753/0577-5132570603
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Abdalla, Ahmed & Carabias, Jose M. & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2021. "The real-time macro content of corporate financial reports: a dynamic factor model approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108539, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Thomas L. Hogan, 2022. "The calculus of dissent: Bias and diversity in FOMC projections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 191(1), pages 105-135, April.
    3. Michael D. Hunter & Haya Fatimah & Marina A. Bornovalova, 2022. "Two Filtering Methods of Forecasting Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of Intensive Longitudinal Data," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 87(2), pages 477-505, June.
    4. Abdalla, Ahmed M. & Carabias, Jose M. & Patatoukas, Panos N., 2021. "The real-time macro content of corporate financial reports: A dynamic factor model approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 260-280.

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