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Forecasting the macro economy

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Ewing

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • David Gruen

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • John Hawkins

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

Abstract

This article examines Treasury's macroeconomic forecasting performance over the period from 1989-90 to 2003-04, with a focus on forecasts of nominal and real GDP, the GDP deflator, the unemployment rate, and CPI inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Ewing & David Gruen & John Hawkins, 2005. "Forecasting the macro economy," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 2, pages 11-25, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:tsy:journl:journl_tsy_er_2005_2_1
    as

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    File URL: http://archive.treasury.gov.au/documents/987/PDF/03_macroeconomy.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    2. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "Reply to the comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 503-505, December.
    3. Morris Goldstein & John Hawkins, 1998. "The Origin of the Asian Financial Turmoil," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9805, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Victor Zarnowitz, 1991. "Has Macro-Forecasting Failed?," NBER Working Papers 3867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. repec:bla:ecorec:v:59:y:1983:i:167:p:321-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. I. J. Macfarlane & J. R. Hawkins, 1983. "Economic Forecasts and Their Assessment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(4), pages 321-331, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; gross domestic product; macroeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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