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Do We Think We Make Better Forecasts Than in the Past? A Survey of Academics

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  • Philip Hans Franses

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam, PO Box 1738, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands)

Abstract

A survey of 76 members of the editorial boards of six academic journals indicates that 64 percent believe that we have made modest progress in forecasting over the past three decades. They attribute this progress largely to increased computing power and improved data. They believe we would make further progress by including experts' opinions.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Hans Franses, 2004. "Do We Think We Make Better Forecasts Than in the Past? A Survey of Academics," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 466-468, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:34:y:2004:i:6:p:466-468
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.1040.0102
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    2. Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1992. "Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 575-582, December.
    3. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2003. "Do we make better forecasts these days? A survey amongst academics," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-06, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    4. Nada R. Sanders & Karl B. Manrodt, 2003. "Forecasting Software in Practice: Use, Satisfaction, and Performance," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 33(5), pages 90-93, October.
    5. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "Reply to the comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 503-505, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Youssef Boulaksil & Philip Hans Franses, 2009. "Experts' Stated Behavior," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 39(2), pages 168-171, April.
      • Boulaksil, Y. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2008. "Experts' Stated Behavior," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-001-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    2. Diana Sánchez-Partida & Rodolfo Rodríguez-Méndez & José Luis Martínez-Flores & Santiago-Omar Caballero-Morales, 2018. "Implementation of Continuous Flow in the Cabinet Process at the Schneider Electric Plant in Tlaxcala, Mexico," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 48(6), pages 566-577, November.
    3. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2006. "Formalizing judgemental adjustment of model-based forecasts," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-19, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

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