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Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making: A Manifesto for a Research Agenda

Author

Listed:
  • David Tucket

    (UCL - University College of London [London])

  • Antoine Mandel

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Diana Mangalagiu

    (RMS - Reims Management School)

  • Allen Abramson

    (UCL - University College of London [London])

  • Jochen Hinkel
  • Konstantinos Katsikopoulos
  • Alan Kirman

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Thierry Malleret
  • Igor Mozetic

    (IJS - Jozef Stefan Institute [Ljubljana])

  • Paul Ormerod

    (UCL - University College of London [London])

  • Robert Elliot Smith

    (UCL - University College of London [London])

  • Tommaso Venturini

    (médialab - médialab (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Angela Wilkinson

    (OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

Abstract

The financial crisis of 2008 was unforeseen partly because the academic theories that underpin policy making do not sufficiently account for uncertainty and complexity or learned and evolved human capabilities for managing them. Mainstream theories of decision making tend to be strongly normative and based on wishfully unrealistic "idealized" modeling. In order to develop theories of actual decision making under uncertainty, we need new methodologies that account for how human (sentient) actors often manage uncertain situations "well enough." Some possibly helpful methodologies, drawing on digital science, focus on the role of emotions in determining people's choices; others examine how people construct narratives that enable them to act; still others combine qualitative with quantitative data.

Suggested Citation

  • David Tucket & Antoine Mandel & Diana Mangalagiu & Allen Abramson & Jochen Hinkel & Konstantinos Katsikopoulos & Alan Kirman & Thierry Malleret & Igor Mozetic & Paul Ormerod & Robert Elliot Smith & To, 2015. "Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making: A Manifesto for a Research Agenda," Post-Print hal-02057279, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02057279
    DOI: 10.1080/08913811.2015.1037078
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-02057279
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