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Do we make better forecasts these days? A survey amongst academics

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  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a survey held amongst all editorial board members of six journals. These journals in part focus on the development of models and methods for forecasting. The key question was whether one believes that the forecasting discipline has made progress in the last three decades. Amongst various results, the most important one is that modest progress has been made, although the profession seems far from satisfied. This progress appears to be mainly due to the increase in computing power and the fact that we are better able to incorporate important data features in our models. Additionally, progress could have been faster if we somehow were to include the opinions of experts. These last two findings define two important topics on the research agenda.

Suggested Citation

  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2003. "Do we make better forecasts these days? A survey amongst academics," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-06, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:1693
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    2. Granger, Clive W J, 1996. "Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 455-473, Sept.-Oct.
    3. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809, September.
    4. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "Reply to the comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 503-505, December.
    5. Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 175-192, Spring.
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    Cited by:

    1. Philip Hans Franses, 2004. "Do We Think We Make Better Forecasts Than in the Past? A Survey of Academics," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 466-468, December.

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