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Mit tanultunk?. A jegybanki előrejelzések szerepe az inflációs cél követésének első öt évében Magyarországon
[What are we studying?. The role of central-bank forecasts in Hungarian inflation targeting]

Author

Listed:
  • Jakab M., Zoltán
  • Kovács, Mihály András
  • Kiss, Gergely

Abstract

Az inflációs célt követő rendszer ötéves évfordulója alkalmából ebben az írásban az előrejelzések e rezsimben betöltött szerepét és az MNB eddigi előrejelzési gyakorlatának tapasztalatait tekintjük át. Az előrejelzési módszertan fejlődésének rövid történeti áttekintése után értékeljük a prognózisok eredményességét. A feltételes előrejelzési gyakorlat közgazdaságilag megalapozott értékelése alapján elmondható, hogy az inflációs fordulópontokat az esetek túlnyomó részében megfelelően jeleztük előre, és így a monetáris politikai jelzések többségében megfelelők voltak. Az előrejelzési hibák statisztikai elemzése szerint a kulcsváltozókra adott előrejelzések összességében torzítatlannak bizonyultak. Voltak azonban tévedések is, amelyek részben a béralkalmazkodás sebességére, a lakossági fogyasztás bővülési ütemére, illetve a vállalati szektor külpiaci aktivitására vonatkoztak. Az előrejelzési hibák szerkezetének átfogó elemzése arra világít rá, hogy az előrejelzések nem használtak fel minden információt optimálisan. Az utolsó negyedévi fogyasztói árindex tényadatát általában túlreagáltuk, a nominálbérek, az árfolyam, az olajárak begyűrűzési hatása rövid távon gyengébb, éven túl pedig erősebb lehet annál, mint amit számításainkban alkalmaztunk. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E17, E27, E37, E58.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakab M., Zoltán & Kovács, Mihály András & Kiss, Gergely, 2006. "Mit tanultunk?. A jegybanki előrejelzések szerepe az inflációs cél követésének első öt évében Magyarországon [What are we studying?. The role of central-bank forecasts in Hungarian inflation target," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1101-1134.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:886
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    2. Cecília Hornok & Zoltán M. Jakab, 2002. "Forecasting Inflation - A Case Study on the Czech, Hungarian, Polish, Slovakian and Slovenian Central Banks," MNB Background Studies (discontinued) 2002/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    3. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 63-146.
    4. Carare, Alina & Stone, Mark R., 2006. "Inflation targeting regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1297-1315, July.
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    7. Mr. Mark Zelmer & Ms. Andrea Schaechter, 2000. "Adopting Inflation Targeting: Practical Issues for Emerging Market Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 2000/017, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "Reply to the comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 503-505, December.
    9. Darvas, Zsolt, 2001. "Exchange rate pass-through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,10, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Darvas, Zsolt, 1999. "Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége [Empirical models of exchange rate target zones]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 507-529.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tóth, Máté Barnabás, 2006. "Az átláthatóság szerepe a jegybanki stratégiában [The role of transparency in central-bank strategy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1080-1100.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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