Solving the Problem of Inadequate Scoring Rules for Assessing Probabilistic Football Forecast Models
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DOI: 10.1515/1559-0410.1418
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- Babatunde Buraimo & David Peel & Rob Simmons, 2013. "Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 1(4), pages 1-15, December.
- Szczecinski Leszek, 2022. "G-Elo: generalization of the Elo algorithm by modeling the discretized margin of victory," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-14, March.
- Wheatcroft, Edward, 2021. "Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of football matches: the case against the ranked probability score," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 111494, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Pearson Mitchell & Jr Glen Livingston & King Robert, 2020. "An exploration of predictive football modelling," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 27-39, March.
- Marc Garnica-Caparrós & Daniel Memmert & Fabian Wunderlich, 2022. "Artificial data in sports forecasting: a simulation framework for analysing predictive models in sports," Information Systems and e-Business Management, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 551-580, September.
- Koopman, Siem Jan & Lit, Rutger, 2019.
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International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 797-809.
- Siem Jan (S.J.) Koopman & Rutger Lit, 2017. "Forecasting Football Match Results in National League Competitions Using Score-Driven Time Series Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-062/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Hans Eetvelde & Lars Magnus Hvattum & Christophe Ley, 2023. "The Probabilistic Final Standing Calculator: a fair stochastic tool to handle abruptly stopped football seasons," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 107(1), pages 251-269, March.
- Chia-Hao Chang, 2021. "Construction of a Predictive Model for MLB Matches," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-11, February.
- Groll Andreas & Kneib Thomas & Mayr Andreas & Schauberger Gunther, 2018. "On the dependency of soccer scores – a sparse bivariate Poisson model for the UEFA European football championship 2016," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 65-79, June.
- Baboota, Rahul & Kaur, Harleen, 2019. "Predictive analysis and modelling football results using machine learning approach for English Premier League," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 741-755.
- Lasek, Jan & Gagolewski, Marek, 2021. "Interpretable sports team rating models based on the gradient descent algorithm," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1061-1071.
- Wheatcroft Edward, 2021. "Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of football matches: the case against the ranked probability score," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 273-287, December.
- Lechner, Michael & Okasa, Gabriel, 2019.
"Random Forest Estimation of the Ordered Choice Model,"
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- Michael Lechner & Gabriel Okasa, 2019. "Random Forest Estimation of the Ordered Choice Model," Papers 1907.02436, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
- Zachary J. Smith & J. Eric Bickel, 2020. "Additive Scoring Rules for Discrete Sample Spaces," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 17(2), pages 115-133, June.
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Keywords
association football forecasting; forecast assessment; forecast verification; predictive evaluation; probability forecasting; rank probability score; sports forecasting;All these keywords.
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