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Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7

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Cited by:

  1. Chang, Chia-Lin & de Bruijn, Bert & Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Analyzing fixed-event forecast revisions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 622-627.
  2. Mihaela Simionescu (Bratu), 2014. "The Performance of Predictions Based on the Dobrescu Macromodel for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 179-195, October.
  3. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2013. "Do inflation targets anchor inflation expectations?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 214-223.
  4. Pedersen, Michael, 2015. "What affects the predictions of private forecasters? The role of central bank forecasts in Chile," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1043-1055.
  5. Miah, Fazlul & Rahman, M. Saifur & Albinali, Khalid, 2016. "Rationality of survey based inflation expectations: A study of 18 emerging economies’ inflation forecasts," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 158-166.
  6. Laura Carabotta & Peter Claeys, 2024. "Combine to compete: Improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 948-982, July.
  7. Chen, Qiwei & Costantini, Mauro & Deschamps, Bruno, 2016. "How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 154-167.
  8. Philip Hans Franses & Max Welz, 2020. "Does More Expert Adjustment Associate with Less Accurate Professional Forecasts?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-8, March.
  9. Iregui, Ana María & Núñez, Héctor M. & Otero, Jesús, 2021. "Testing the efficiency of inflation and exchange rate forecast revisions in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 290-314.
  10. Thomas Jobert & Lionel Persyn, 2012. "Quelques constats sur les prévisions conjoncturelles de la croissance française," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 122(6), pages 833-849.
  11. Berge, Travis J. & Chang, Andrew C. & Sinha, Nitish R., 2019. "Evaluating the conditionality of judgmental forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1627-1635.
  12. Sun, Yuying & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xun, 2018. "How efficient are China's macroeconomic forecasts? Evidences from a new forecasting evaluation approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 506-513.
  13. Foltas, Alexander, 2024. "Inefficient forecast narratives: A BERT-based approach," Working Papers 45, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
  14. Ullrich Heilemann & Karsten Müller, 2018. "Wenig Unterschiede – Zur Treffsicherheit Internationaler Prognosen und Prognostiker [Few differences—on the accuracy of international forecasts and forecaster]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 12(3), pages 195-233, December.
  15. Marcos Bujosa & Antonio García‐Ferrer & Aránzazu de Juan & Antonio Martín‐Arroyo, 2020. "Evaluating early warning and coincident indicators of business cycles using smooth trends," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, January.
  16. Mihaela Bratu, 2012. "A Strategy to Improve the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) Predictions Using Bias-Corrected-Accelerated (BCA) Bootstrap Forecast Intervals," International Journal of Synergy and Research, ToKnowPress, vol. 1(2), pages 45-59.
  17. Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2014. "Inflation uncertainty revisited: a proposal for robust measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1497-1523, December.
  18. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 760-769.
  19. Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu), 2013. "How to Improve the SPF Forecasts?," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 9(2), pages 153-165, April.
  20. Anyu Liu & Laura Vici & Vicente Ramos & Sauveur Giannoni & Adam Blake, 2021. "Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team," Post-Print hal-04653783, HAL.
  21. Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  22. Miah, Fazlul & Khalifa, Ahmed Ali & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2016. "Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations: A comprehensive study of developed and emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 574-590.
  23. BRATU SIMIONESCU, Mihaela, 2012. "Two Quantitative Forecasting Methods For Macroeconomic Indicators In Czech Republic," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 3(1), pages 71-87.
  24. Klein, Tony, 2021. "Agree to Disagree? Predictions of U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Changes between 2008 and 2020 and the Impact of the COVID19 Labor Shock," QBS Working Paper Series 2021/07, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
  25. Dirk Bleich & Ralf Fendel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2013. "Monetary Policy and Stock Market Volatility," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 1669-1680.
  26. Rybacki, Jakub, 2020. "Polish GDP Forecast Errors: A Tale of Ineffectiveness," MPRA Paper 98952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  27. Dimitrios Papastamos & Fotis Mouzakis & Simon Stevenson, 2014. "Rationality and Momentum in Real Estate Investment Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-07, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  28. Dovern, Jonas & Fritsche, Ulrich & Loungani, Prakash & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2013. "Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79936, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  29. Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2011. "Are central bank projections rational?," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 11-05, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
  30. Frederik Kunze, 2020. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 313-333, March.
  31. Tara M. Sinclair, 2019. "Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  32. Messina, Jeffrey D. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman, 2015. "What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 54-62.
  33. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2018. "Inflation, real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(42), pages 4540-4555, September.
  34. Fernando Borraz & Diego Gianelli, 2010. "Un análisis de comportamiento a nivel de agente de la encuesta de expectativas de inflación del BCU," Documentos de trabajo 2010001, Banco Central del Uruguay.
  35. Mihaela BRATU (SIMIONESCU), 2012. "A Strategy To Improve The Gdp Index Forcasts In Romania Using Moving Average Models Of Historical Errors Of The Dobrescu Macromodel," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 35(2(44)), pages 128-138, December.
  36. Jan-Christoph Rülke & Maria Silgoner & Julia Wörz, 2012. "Herding Behavior of Business Cycle Forecasters in Times of Economic Crises," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 12-03, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
  37. Eva A. Arnold, 2013. "The Role of Data Revisions and Disagreement in Professional Forecasts," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201303, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
  38. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  39. Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Bizer, Kilian & Spiwoks, Markus, 2015. "Strategic coordination in forecasting – An experimental study," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 155-162.
  40. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2024. "Heterogeneous Expectations among Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 0754, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  41. Bratu Mihaela, 2013. "An Evaluation Of Usa Unemployment Rate Forecasts In Terms Of Accuracy And Bias. Empirical Methods To Improve The Forecasts Accuracy," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 170-180, February.
  42. Philip Hans Franses, 2020. "Correcting the January optimism effect," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 927-933, September.
  43. repec:zna:indecs:v:13:y:2015:i:2:p:420-433 is not listed on IDEAS
  44. Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2020. "High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 358-372.
  45. Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011. "Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465.
  46. Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2013. "Do private sector forecasters chase after IMF or OECD forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 217-229.
  47. Fildes, Robert, 2015. "Forecasters and rationality—A comment on Fritsche et al., Forecasting the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality and forecaster herding," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 140-143.
  48. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Maassen, N.R., 2015. "Consensus forecasters: How good are they individually and why?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-21, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  49. de Haan, Leo & Hessel, Jeroen & van den End, Jan Willem, 2014. "Are European sovereign bonds fairly priced? The role of modelling uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 239-267.
  50. Pedersen, Michael, 2019. "Anomalies in macroeconomic prediction errors–evidence from Chilean private forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1100-1107.
  51. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  52. Dovern, Jonas & Fritsche, Ulrich & Loungani, Prakash & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2015. "Information rigidities: Comparing average and individual forecasts for a large international panel," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 144-154.
  53. Paolo Bianchi & Bruno Deschamps & Khurshid M. Kiani, 2015. "Fiscal Balance and Current Account in Professional Forecasts," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 361-378, May.
  54. Ralf Fendel & Jan-Christoph Ruelke, 2014. "Expectations and the quantity equation - evidence from Eastern European countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 329-335, January.
  55. Aromí, J. Daniel, 2019. "Medium term growth forecasts: Experts vs. simple models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1085-1099.
  56. Liu, Anyu & Vici, Laura & Ramos, Vicente & Giannoni, Sauveur & Blake, Adam, 2021. "Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  57. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2017. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2017 - Deutsche Wirtschaft nähert sich der Hochkonjunktur [German Economy Autumn 2017 - German economy approaches boom period]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 35, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  58. Johanna Amberger & Ralf Fendel, 2017. "Understanding inflation dynamics in the Euro Area: deviants and commonalities across member countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(2), pages 261-293, May.
  59. Bruno Deschamps & Christos Ioannidis, 2014. "The Efficiency of Multivariate Macroeconomic Forecasts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(5), pages 509-523, September.
  60. Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Do professional forecasters apply the Phillips curve and Okun's law? Evidence from six Asian-Pacific countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 317-324.
  61. Papastamos, Dimitrios & Matysiak, George & Stevenson, Simon, 2015. "Assessing the accuracy and dispersion of real estate investment forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-152.
  62. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "What Type Of Social Capital Is Engaged By The French Dairy Stockbreeders? A Characterization Through Their Professional Identities," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 8(1), pages 87-102, JUNE.
  63. Johanna Amberger & Ralf Fendel & Hanno Stremmel, 2017. "Improved output gaps with financial cycle information? An application to G7 countries’ new Keynesian Phillips curves," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 219-228, February.
  64. Feuerriegel, Stefan & Gordon, Julius, 2019. "News-based forecasts of macroeconomic indicators: A semantic path model for interpretable predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 162-175.
  65. Johanna Amberger & Ralf Fendel, 2017. "The Slope of the Euro Area Phillips Curve: Always and Everywhere the Same?," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 77-88, May.
  66. Jakub Rybacki, 2021. "Polish GDP forecast errors: a tale of inefficiency," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(2), pages 123-142.
  67. Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos, 2013. "Can rational stubbornness explain forecast biases?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 141-151.
  68. repec:ath:journl:tome:34:v:2:y:2014:i:34:p:197-209 is not listed on IDEAS
  69. Constantin Mitru? & Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu), 2013. "The Indicators’ Inadequacy and the Predictions’ Accuracy," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 9(4), pages 430-442, August.
  70. Dirk Bleich & Ralf Fendel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2012. "Monetary policy and oil price expectations," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(10), pages 969-973, July.
  71. repec:aaa:journl:v:3:y:1999:i:1:p:87-100 is not listed on IDEAS
  72. Bleich, Dirk & Fendel, Ralf, 2012. "Monetary Policy Conditions in Spain Before and After the Changeover to the Euro: A Taylor Rule Based Assessment," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, February.
  73. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2019. "Professional Forecasters and January," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-25, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  74. Jakub Rybacki & Michał Gniazdowski, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting in Poland: lessons from the external shocks," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(1), pages 45-64.
  75. Jonas Dovern & Christopher Zuber, 2020. "Recessions and Potential Output: Disentangling Measurement Errors, Supply Shocks, and Hysteresis Effects," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(4), pages 1431-1466, October.
  76. Rülke Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Do Private Sector Forecasters Desire to Deviate From the German Council of Economic Experts?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(4), pages 414-428, August.
  77. Mihaela Simionescu, 2015. "The Accuracy Analysis of Inflation Rate Forecasts in Euro Area," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, vol. 3(1), pages 80-85, May.
  78. Strunz, Franziska & Gödl, Maximilian, 2023. "An Evaluation of Professional Forecasts for the German Economy," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277707, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  79. Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-34.
  80. Claeys, Peter & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Poplawski Ribeiro, Marcos, 2014. "How do financial institutions forecast sovereign spreads?," Working Paper Series 1750, European Central Bank.
  81. Bleich, Dirk & Fendel, Ralf & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Inflation targeting makes the difference: Novel evidence on inflation stabilization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1092-1105.
  82. Dimitrios Papastamos & George Matysiak & Simon Stevenson, 2014. "A Comparative Analysis of the Accuracy and Uncertainty in Real Estate and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  83. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematische Prognosefehler in unterschiedlichen Konjunkturphasen," Kiel Insight 2017.15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  84. Ksenija Dumicic & Vesna Bucevska & Emina Resic, 2015. "Recent Impacts of Selected Development Indicators on Unemployment Rate: Focusing the SEE Countries," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 13(3), pages 420-433.
  85. Bizer, Kilian & Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Spiwoks, Markus, 2014. "Strategic coordination in forecasting: An experimental study," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 195, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  86. Klein, Tony, 2022. "Agree to disagree? Predictions of U.S. nonfarm payroll changes between 2008 and 2020 and the impact of the COVID19 labor shock," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 264-286.
  87. Sergey V. Smirnov, 2014. "Predicting US Recessions: Does a Wishful Bias Exist?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 77/EC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  88. Mihaela Simionescu, 2015. "The Improvement of Unemployment Rate Predictions Accuracy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(3), pages 274-286.
  89. Vereda, Luciano & Savignon, João & Gouveia da Silva, Tarciso, 2021. "A new method to assess the degree of information rigidity using fixed-event forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1576-1589.
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