Macroeconomic forecasting in Poland: lessons from the external shocks
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011.
"Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465.
- Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011. "Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465, April.
- Jonas Dovern & Johannes Weisser, 2009. "Accuracy, Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts: An empirical Comparison for the G7," Jena Economics Research Papers 2009-091, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
- David Cronin & Kieran McQuinn, 2021.
"Fiscal policy and growth forecasts in the EU: are official forecasters still misestimating fiscal multipliers?,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(3), pages 453-462, August.
- Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2020. "Fiscal policy and growth forecasts in the EU: Are official forecasters still misestimating fiscal multipliers?," Papers WP682, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Frenkel, Michael & Mauch, Matthias & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2020. "Do forecasters of major exchange rates herd?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 214-221.
- Jakub Rybacki, 2021. "Polish GDP forecast errors: a tale of inefficiency," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(2), pages 123-142.
- Ager, P. & Kappler, M. & Osterloh, S., 2009.
"The accuracy and efficiency of the Consensus Forecasts: A further application and extension of the pooled approach,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 167-181.
- Ager, Philipp & Kappler, Marcus & Osterloh, Steffen, 2007. "The Accuracy and Efficiency of the Consensus Forecasts: A Further Application and Extension of the Pooled Approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-058, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
- Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
- Kosuke Imai & Marc Ratkovic, 2014. "Covariate balancing propensity score," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 76(1), pages 243-263, January.
- Teng, Bin & Wang, Sicong & Shi, Yufeng & Sun, Yunchuan & Wang, Wei & Hu, Wentao & Shi, Chaojun, 2022. "Economic recovery forecasts under impacts of COVID-19," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
- Zidong An & João Tovar Jalles & Prakash Loungani, 2018.
"How well do economists forecast recessions?,"
International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 100-121, June.
- Zidong An & João Tovar Jalles & Mr. Prakash Loungani, 2018. "How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?," IMF Working Papers 2018/039, International Monetary Fund.
- Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle, 1989. "Are economic forecasts rational?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 13(Spr), pages 26-33.
- Nordhaus, William D, 1987.
"Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 667-674, November.
- William D. Nordhaus, 1985. "Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 774, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Müller, Karsten, 2019. "Has macroeconomic forecasting changed after the Great Recession? Panel-based evidence on forecast accuracy and forecaster behavior from Germany," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
- Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021.
"The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios,"
Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
- Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2020. "The global macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19: Seven scenarios," CAMA Working Papers 2020-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Jakub Mućk & Michał Rubaszek & Karol Szafranek, 2021. "A note on the heterogenous economic effects of COVID-19 on GDP via the sectoral structure," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(3), pages 253-266.
- Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stevanovic, Dalibor, 2022.
"Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: Lessons from the financial crisis,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 596-612.
- Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2020. "Forecasting the COVID-19 recession and recovery: Lessons from the financial crisis," Working Papers 20-14, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Nov 2020.
- Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stevanović, Dalibor, 2020. "Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: lessons from the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 2468, European Central Bank.
- Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2020. "Forecasting the Covid-19 Recession and Recovery: Lessons from the Financial Crisis," CIRANO Working Papers 2020s-32, CIRANO.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia & Stevanovic, Dalibor, 2020. "Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: Lessons from the financial crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 15114, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2021. "Crises, market shocks, and herding behavior in stock price forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 919-945, August.
- Eicher, Theo S. & Kuenzel, David J. & Papageorgiou, Chris & Christofides, Charis, 2019.
"Forecasts in times of crises,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1143-1159.
- Theo S. Eicher & David J. Kuenzel & Mr. Chris Papageorgiou & Mr. Charalambos Christofides, 2018. "Forecasts in Times of Crises," IMF Working Papers 2018/048, International Monetary Fund.
- Scotti, Chiara, 2016.
"Surprise and uncertainty indexes: Real-time aggregation of real-activity macro-surprises,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-19.
- Chiara Scotti, 2013. "Surprise and uncertainty indexes: real-time aggregation of real-activity macro surprises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1093, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa & Krzysztof Makarski, 2022.
"Monetary Policy and COVID-19,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 41-80, March.
- Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa & Krzysztof Makarski, 2021. "Monetary policy and COVID-19," KAE Working Papers 2021-067, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
- Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa & Krzysztof Makarski, 2021. "Monetary Policy and COVID-19," IMF Working Papers 2021/274, International Monetary Fund.
- Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2020.
"How to Estimate a VAR after March 2020,"
NBER Working Papers
27771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Primiceri, Giorgio & Lenza, Michele, 2020. "How to Estimate a VAR after March 2020," CEPR Discussion Papers 15245, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio E., 2020. "How to estimate a VAR after March 2020," Working Paper Series 2461, European Central Bank.
- Leon Podkaminer, 2021. "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium: macroeconomics at a dead end," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(2), pages 97-122.
- Rybacki Jakub, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting in Poland: The role of forecasting competitions," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 7(54), pages 1-11, January.
- Christine Lewis & Nigel Pain, 2014. "Lessons from OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2014(1), pages 9-39.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Rybacki, Jakub & Gniazdowski, Michał, 2021. "Macroeconomic Forecasting in Poland: Lessons From the COVID-19 Outbreak," MPRA Paper 107682, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gatti, Roberta & Lederman, Daniel & Islam, Asif M. & Nguyen, Ha & Lotfi, Rana & Emam Mousa, Mennatallah, 2024.
"Data transparency and GDP growth forecast errors,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
- Gatti,Roberta V. & Lederman,Daniel & Islam,Asif Mohammed & Nguyen,Ha & Lotfi,Rana Mohamed Amr Mohamed Nabil & Mousa,Mennatallah Emam Mohamed Sayed, 2023. "Data Transparency and GDP Growth Forecast Errors," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10406, The World Bank.
- Chang, Chia-Lin & de Bruijn, Bert & Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 2013.
"Analyzing fixed-event forecast revisions,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 622-627.
- Philip Hans Franses & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," Working Papers in Economics 11/25, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Bert de Bruijn & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-14, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, revised Apr 2013.
- Philip Hans Franses & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2011-24, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Bert de Bruijn & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Analyzing Fixed-Event Forecast Revisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-057/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J., 2011. "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2011-22, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Michael McAleer & Philip Hans Franses & Chia-Lin Chang, 2011. "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," KIER Working Papers 779, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2020. "High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 358-372.
- Bizer, Kilian & Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Spiwoks, Markus, 2014. "Strategic coordination in forecasting: An experimental study," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 195, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
- Iregui, Ana María & Núñez, Héctor M. & Otero, Jesús, 2021. "Testing the efficiency of inflation and exchange rate forecast revisions in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 290-314.
- Thomas Jobert & Lionel Persyn, 2012.
"Quelques constats sur les prévisions conjoncturelles de la croissance française,"
Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 122(6), pages 833-849.
- Thomas Jobert & Lionel Persyn, 2011. "Quelques constats sur les prévisions conjoncturelles de la croissance française," Working Papers halshs-00721673, HAL.
- Eicher, Theo S. & Kawai, Reina, 2023. "IMF trade forecasts for crisis countries: Bias, inefficiency, and their origins," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1615-1639.
- Dovern, Jonas & Fritsche, Ulrich & Loungani, Prakash & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2015.
"Information rigidities: Comparing average and individual forecasts for a large international panel,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 144-154.
- Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Prakash Loungani & Natalia Tamirisa, 2014. "Information Rigidities: Comparing Average And Individual Forecasts For A Large International Panel," Working Papers 2014-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Jonas Dovern & Mr. Ulrich Fritsche & Mr. Prakash Loungani & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2014. "Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel," IMF Working Papers 2014/031, International Monetary Fund.
- Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Rybacki, Jakub, 2020. "Polish GDP Forecast Errors: A Tale of Ineffectiveness," MPRA Paper 98952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jonas Dovern & Mr. Ulrich Fritsche & Mr. Prakash Loungani & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2013.
"Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel,"
IMF Working Papers
2013/056, International Monetary Fund.
- Dovern, Jonas & Fritsche, Ulrich & Loungani, Prakash & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2013. "Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79936, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Jakub Rybacki, 2021. "Polish GDP forecast errors: a tale of inefficiency," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(2), pages 123-142.
- Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos, 2013. "Can rational stubbornness explain forecast biases?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 141-151.
- Strunz, Franziska & Gödl, Maximilian, 2023. "An Evaluation of Professional Forecasts for the German Economy," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277707, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011.
"Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465.
- Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011. "Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465, April.
- Jonas Dovern & Johannes Weisser, 2009. "Accuracy, Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts: An empirical Comparison for the G7," Jena Economics Research Papers 2009-091, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
- Pedersen, Michael, 2019. "Anomalies in macroeconomic prediction errors–evidence from Chilean private forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1100-1107.
- Bruno Deschamps & Christos Ioannidis, 2014. "The Efficiency of Multivariate Macroeconomic Forecasts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(5), pages 509-523, September.
- Chen, Qiwei & Costantini, Mauro & Deschamps, Bruno, 2016. "How accurate are professional forecasts in Asia? Evidence from ten countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 154-167.
- Teng, Bin & Wang, Sicong & Shi, Yufeng & Sun, Yunchuan & Wang, Wei & Hu, Wentao & Shi, Chaojun, 2022. "Economic recovery forecasts under impacts of COVID-19," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
More about this item
Keywords
GDP forecasting; labour market forecasts; COVID-19; forecasts’ accuracy; forecasts’ consistency;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:53:y:2023:i:1:p:45-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wojciech Burjanek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbpgvpl.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.