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Consensus forecasters: How good are they individually and why?

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  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
  • Maassen, N.R.

Abstract

We analyze the monthly forecasts for annual US GDP growth, CPI inflation rate and the unemployment rate delivered by forty professional forecasters collected in the Consensus database for 2000M01-2014M12. To understand why some forecasters are better than others, we create simple benchmark model-based forecasts. Evaluating the individual forecasts against the model forecasts is informative for how the professional forecasters behave. Next, we link this behavior to forecast performance. We find that forecasters who impose proper judgment to model-based forecasts also have highest forecast accuracy, and hence, they do not perform best just by luck.

Suggested Citation

  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Maassen, N.R., 2015. "Consensus forecasters: How good are they individually and why?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-21, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:78774
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar & Prakash Loungani, 2006. "How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 703-725.
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    12. Rianne Legerstee & Philip Hans Franses, 2015. "Does Disagreement Amongst Forecasters Have Predictive Value?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 290-302, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Philip Hans Franses & Bert Bruijn, 2017. "Benchmarking Judgmentally Adjusted Forecasts," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 3-11, January.
    2. Meyler, Aidan, 2020. "Forecast performance in the ECB SPF: ability or chance?," Working Paper Series 2371, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomic forecasts; expert adjustment;

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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