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Do professional forecasters apply the Phillips curve and Okun's law? Evidence from six Asian-Pacific countries

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  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph

Abstract

Using survey data from six Asian-Pacific countries, we report that professional forecasters apply the wage Phillips curve, the price Phillips curve, and Okun's law when forecasting macroeconomic variables. This result is robust when using time-varying coefficients, different forecast horizons and when taking business-cycle asymmetries into account. The results also suggest that the confidence in macroeconomic relationships was more pronounced during the economic crisis 2007–2009 and when looking at longer forecast horizons.

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  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Do professional forecasters apply the Phillips curve and Okun's law? Evidence from six Asian-Pacific countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 317-324.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:24:y:2012:i:4:p:317-324
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2012.05.002
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    2. Dräger, L. & Lamla, M.J. & Pfajfar, D., 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," Other publications TiSEM 4d696071-8776-4191-a84f-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Yhlas SOVBETOV, 2019. "Phillips Curve Estimation During Tranquil and Recessionary Periods: Evidence From Panel Analysis," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 69(1), pages 23-41, June.
    4. Carola Conces Binder, 2021. "Central Bank Communication and Disagreement about the Natural Rate Hypothesis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 81-123, June.
    5. Yhlas SOVBETOV & Muhittin KAPLAN, 2019. "Empirical examination of the stability of expectations – Augmented Phillips Curve for developing and developed countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(619), S), pages 63-78, Summer.
    6. Olofin, S.O. & Salisu, A.A & Tule, M.K, 2020. "Revised Small Macro-Econometric Model Of The Nigerian Economy," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(1), pages 97-116.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Okun's law; Phillips curve; Asian-Pacific countries; Professional forecasters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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