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The Performance of Predictions Based on the Dobrescu Macromodel for the Romanian Economy

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  • Mihaela Simionescu (Bratu)

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting)

Abstract

This research has two main objectives: the evaluation of forecast performance based on the Dobrescu macromodel for the Romanian economy on the horizon 1997-2012 and the proposal of some empirical strategies to improve the prediction accuracy. Seven macroeconomic indicators were selected and the most accurate forecasts are those for exchange rate, the less accurate being export rate predictions. Unlike the rest of the forecasts, these are biased. The best improvement in accuracy for the seven types of forecasts was obtained by applying Hodrick-Prescott filter and Holt- Winters adjustment. During 2004-2012,Dobrescu model offered forecasts with a higher degree of efficiency compared to NCP for GDP deflator, consumer index of prices and exchange rate. Using a fixed-effects model based on three scenarios of the Dobrescu model for GDP deflator, index of private consumption, GDP index and index of consumer prices, the weak efficiency was checked only for GDP deflator and index of private consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela Simionescu (Bratu), 2014. "The Performance of Predictions Based on the Dobrescu Macromodel for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 179-195, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2014:i:3:p:179-195
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lucian Liviu ALBU & Carlos MatéJIMÉNEZ & Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2015. "The Assessment of Some Macroeconomic Forecasts for Spain using Aggregated Accuracy Indicators," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 30-47, June.
    2. Mihaela Simionescu, 2015. "The Improvement of Unemployment Rate Predictions Accuracy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(3), pages 274-286.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasts accuracy; biasness; efficiency; performance; strategy; combined forecasts; Hodrick-Prescott filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • L6 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing

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