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Are central bank projections rational?

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  • Jan-Christoph Rülke

Abstract

Central bank projections have gained considerable attention for monetary policy modeling. However, less is known about the nature of central bank projections. This letter explores the unbiasedness and rationality of more than 2,000 growth and in ation projections published by 15 major central banks. The results indicate that central bank projections are in most cases rational and unbiased. Interestingly, in ation projections are more biased than growth projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2011. "Are central bank projections rational?," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 11-05, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:whu:wpaper:11-05
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    File URL: https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hbz:992-opus4-4198
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Banks; Projections; Rationality; Unbiasedness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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