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Do inflation targets anchor inflation expectations?

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  • Pierdzioch, Christian
  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph

Abstract

We suggest a simple test of whether an inflation target anchors private-sector inflation expectations. The test is easy to compute and it is robust to various sources of misspecification. The test may be a useful alternative to dispersion measures commonly studied in research on inflation targeting. Using data for 22 inflation targeting countries, we find for many countries that the forecasters scatter their inflation forecasts away from the inflation target. We account for the endogeneity of inflation targets, we study the variability of our finding across countries and across time, and we study to which extent our results depend on the level and variability of inflation targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2013. "Do inflation targets anchor inflation expectations?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 214-223.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:214-223
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.042
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Powell & Rodrigo Mariscal & Pilar Tavella, 2018. "On the Credibility of Inflation-Targeting Regimes in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-24, May.
    2. Carlos Medel, 2018. "An econometric analysis on survey-data-based anchoring of inflation expectations in Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 21(2), pages 128-152, August.
    3. Michael Ehrmann, 2015. "Targeting Inflation from Below: How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 213-249, September.
    4. Miah, Fazlul & Khalifa, Ahmed Ali & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2016. "Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations: A comprehensive study of developed and emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 574-590.
    5. Pierdzioch, Christian & Reid, Monique B. & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Inflation forecasts and forecaster herding: Evidence from South African survey data," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 42-50.
    6. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2018. "On the formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: The case of the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 132-139.
    8. Young Bin Ahn & Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2016. "Directional analysis of consumers’ forecasts of inflation in a small open economy: evidence from South Korea," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(10), pages 854-864, February.
    9. Chen, Li-Ju & Hu, Shih-Wen & Wang, Vey & Wen, Jiandong & Ye, Chusheng, 2014. "The effects of purchasing and price subsidy policies for agricultural products under target zones," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 439-447.
    10. Johanna Amberger & Ralf Fendel & Hanno Stremmel, 2017. "Improved output gaps with financial cycle information? An application to G7 countries’ new Keynesian Phillips curves," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 219-228, February.
    11. El in Ayka Alp & Zeynep Biyik, 2018. "Inflation Expectation Dynamics: A Structural Long-run Analysis for Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 350-356.
    12. Frenkel, Michael & Mauch, Matthias & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2020. "Do forecasters of major exchange rates herd?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 214-221.
    13. Christoph Buehren & Tim Meyer & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Experimental Evidence on Forecaster (anti-) Herding in Sports Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202038, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    14. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Simão Filho, José & Abreu, Vanessa Castro, 2023. "Central bank’s forecasts and lack of transparency: An assessment of the effect on private expectations in a large emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    15. Rodrigo Mariscal & Andrew Powell & Pilar Tavella, 2014. "On the Credibility of Inflation Targeting Regimes in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 86253, Inter-American Development Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation targeting; Forecasting; Anchoring;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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