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Systematische Prognosefehler in unterschiedlichen Konjunkturphasen

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  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Jannsen, Nils

Abstract

Prognosen unterstützen maßgeblich die Wirtschaftspolitik. Ein wichtiges Merkmal für die Güte von Pro-gnosen ist neben ihrer Genauigkeit (betragsmäßig möglichst geringe Prognosefehler), ob sie im Durchschnitt nahe Null liegen (also unverzerrt sind). Sollten Prognosen, beispielsweise für die Zuwachsrate des Bruttoinlandsprodukts, systematisch zu optimistisch oder zu pessimistisch sein, so wären die daran ausgerichteten wirtschaftspolitischen Maßnahmen ebenfalls systematisch falsch.

Suggested Citation

  • Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematische Prognosefehler in unterschiedlichen Konjunkturphasen," Kiel Insight 2017.15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:201715
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011. "Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465.
    2. Batchelor, Roy, 2007. "Bias in macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 189-203.
    3. Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts?," Working Papers 2008-009, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    4. Roy Batchelor, 2007. "Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts," ifo Working Paper Series 39, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    5. Jonas Dovern & Nils Jannsen, 2017. "Prognosen in verschiedenen Konjunkturphasen [Forecasts in Different Business Cycle States]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 97(7), pages 527-528, July.
    6. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 760-769.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & Potjagailo, Galina, 2019. "Prognosen des IfW und tatsächliche Entwicklung im Jahr 2018," Kiel Insight 2019.5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina, 2019. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2019 - Deutsche Konjunktur kühlt ab [German Economy Spring 2019 - German economy cools down]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 53, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Jannsen, Nils, 2018. "Prognose und Prognosekorrektur für das Jahr 2018," Kiel Insight 2018.13, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Jannsen, Nils, 2019. "Prognose und Prognosekorrektur für das Jahr 2019," Kiel Insight 2019.11, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina, 2018. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2018 - Deutsche Wirtschaft: Aufschwungskräfte tragen noch [German Economy Autumn 2018 - Germany's boom is maturing]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 47, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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