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Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series

In: Handbook of Economic Forecasting

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Cited by:

  1. Haffar, Adlane & Le Fur, Éric, 2022. "Time-varying dependence of Bitcoin," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 211-220.
  2. Yongqiang Zhu & Xinyi Li & Xizhen Mu & Yue Zhao, 2024. "Analysis of the Relationships between Variables and Their Applications in the Energy Saving Field," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-16, July.
  3. Alexander, Carol & Han, Yang & Meng, Xiaochun, 2023. "Static and dynamic models for multivariate distribution forecasts: Proper scoring rule tests of factor-quantile versus multivariate GARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1078-1096.
  4. Chen, Yanghan & Lin, Juan, 2024. "Measuring systemic risk in Asian foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  5. Zhou, You & Lin, Lichao & Huang, Ziling, 2024. "Diversification value of green Bonds: Fresh evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  6. Garcia-Jorcano, Laura & Benito, Sonia, 2020. "Studying the properties of the Bitcoin as a diversifying and hedging asset through a copula analysis: Constant and time-varying," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  7. Fabrizio Cipollini & Robert F. Engle & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2017. "Copula–Based vMEM Specifications versus Alternatives: The Case of Trading Activity," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-24, April.
  8. Małgorzata Doman & Ryszard Doman, 2014. "Dynamic Linkages in the Pairs (GBP/EUR, USD/EUR) and (GBP/USD, EUR/USD): How Do They Change During a Day?," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 6(1), pages 33-56, March.
  9. Fousekis, Panos & Grigoriadis, Vasilis, 2019. "Integration and Hierarchy of Pork Markets in the EU: An Analysis from the Vantage of Graph Theory," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 68(2), June.
  10. Stanislav Anatolyev & Vladimir Pyrlik, 2021. "Shrinkage for Gaussian and t Copulas in Ultra-High Dimensions," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp699, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  11. Christensen, Troels Sønderby & Pircalabu, Anca & Høg, Esben, 2019. "A seasonal copula mixture for hedging the clean spark spread with wind power futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 64-80.
  12. Krenar AVDULAJ & Jozef BARUNIK, 2013. "Can We Still Benefit from International Diversification? The Case of the Czech and German Stock Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(5), pages 425-442, November.
  13. Bai, Xiwen, 2021. "Tanker freight rates and economic policy uncertainty: A wavelet-based copula approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
  14. Guilherme Armando Almeida Pereira & Álvaro Veiga, 2019. "Periodic Copula Autoregressive Model Designed to Multivariate Streamflow Time Series Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(10), pages 3417-3431, August.
  15. Pircalabu, A. & Benth, F.E., 2017. "A regime-switching copula approach to modeling day-ahead prices in coupled electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 283-302.
  16. Fei, Fei & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2017. "Dependence in credit default swap and equity markets: Dynamic copula with Markov-switching," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 662-678.
  17. J. A. Carrillo & M. Nieto & J. F. Velez & D. Velez, 2021. "A New Machine Learning Forecasting Algorithm Based on Bivariate Copula Functions," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-22, May.
  18. Fenech, Jean-Pierre & Vosgha, Hamed, 2019. "Oil price and Gulf Corporation Council stock indices: New evidence from time-varying copula models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 81-91.
  19. De Lira Salvatierra, Irving & Patton, Andrew J., 2015. "Dynamic copula models and high frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 120-135.
  20. Fousekis, Panos & Grigoriadis, Vasilis, 2022. "Conditional tail price risk spillovers in coffee markets across quality, physical space, and time: Empirical analysis with penalized quantile regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
  21. GRIGORIADIS, Vasilis & EMMANOUILIDES, Christos & FOUSEKIS, Panos, 2016. "The Integration Of Pigmeat Markets In The Eu. Evidence From A Regular Mixed Vine Copula," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 19(1), pages 1-10, March.
  22. Yang Zhao & Charalampos Stasinakis & Georgios Sermpinis & Filipa Da Silva Fernandes, 2019. "Revisiting Fama–French factors' predictability with Bayesian modelling and copula‐based portfolio optimization," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 1443-1463, October.
  23. Tranberg, Bo & Hansen, Rasmus Thrane & Catania, Leopoldo, 2020. "Managing volumetric risk of long-term power purchase agreements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  24. Timmermann, Allan, 2018. "Forecasting Methods in Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 12692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Risk spillover between the US and the remaining G7 stock markets using time-varying copulas with Markov switching: Evidence from over a century of data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  26. Fabrizio Durante & Roberta Pappadà & Nicola Torelli, 2015. "Clustering of time series via non-parametric tail dependence estimation," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 701-721, August.
  27. Dimitrios Panagiotou & Athanassios Stavrakoudis, 2023. "Price dependence among the major EU extra virgin olive oil markets: a time scale analysis," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 1-26, March.
  28. Nguyen, Hoang & Virbickaitė, Audronė, 2023. "Modeling stock-oil co-dependence with Dynamic Stochastic MIDAS Copula models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  29. Igor L. Kheifets, 2015. "Specification tests for nonlinear dynamic models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 18(1), pages 67-94, February.
  30. Yang, Lu & Yang, Lei & Ho, Kung-Cheng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2020. "Dependence structures and risk spillover in China’s credit bond market: A copula and CoVaR approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  31. Wu, Weiou & Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Vigne, Samuel A., 2017. "Modelling asymmetric conditional dependence between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1137-1149.
  32. Sheng Fang & Paul Egan, 2021. "Tail dependence between oil prices and China's A‐shares: Evidence from firm‐level data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1469-1487, January.
  33. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  34. Erik Kole & Thijs Markwat & Anne Opschoor & Dick van Dijk, 2017. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk under Temporal and Portfolio Aggregation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 649-677.
  35. Fousekis, Panos & Grigoriadis, Vasilis, 2017. "Price co-movement and the crack spread in the US futures markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 57-71.
  36. Apergis, Nicholas & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Wang, Shixuan, 2020. "Dependence structure in the Australian electricity markets: New evidence from regular vine copulae," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  37. Anne Opschoor & André Lucas & István Barra & Dick van Dijk, 2021. "Closed-Form Multi-Factor Copula Models With Observation-Driven Dynamic Factor Loadings," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 1066-1079, October.
  38. Dean Fantazzini & Stephan Zimin, 2020. "A multivariate approach for the simultaneous modelling of market risk and credit risk for cryptocurrencies," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(1), pages 19-69, March.
  39. Ouyang, Ruolan & Zhuang, Chengkai & Wang, Tingting & Zhang, Xuan, 2022. "Network analysis of risk transmission among energy futures: An industrial chain perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
  40. Ngo Thai HUNG, 2020. "Conditional dependence between oil prices and CEE stock markets: a copula-GARCH approach Abstract: This study investigates both the constant and time-varying conditional dependency between crude oil a," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 11, pages 62-86, June.
  41. Müller, Alfred & Reuber, Matthias, 2023. "A copula-based time series model for global horizontal irradiation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 869-883.
  42. Ahmed, Osama & Serra, Teresa, 2015. "Vertical Price Transmission in the Egyptian Tomato Sector After the Arab Spring," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212523, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  43. Johannes Kaufmann & Philipp Artur Kienscherf & Wolfgang Ketter, 2020. "Modeling and Managing Joint Price and Volumetric Risk for Volatile Electricity Portfolios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
  44. David E. Allen, 2022. "Cryptocurrencies, Diversification and the COVID-19 Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-25, February.
  45. Negi, Digvijay S., 2018. "Tail-dependent Rainfall Risk and Demand for Index based Crop Insurance," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274481, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  46. Liu, Jianing & Man, Yuanyuan & Dong, Xiuliang, 2023. "Tail dependence and risk spillover effects between China's carbon market and energy markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 553-567.
  47. Guizhou Liu & Xiao-Jing Cai & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2018. "Modeling the Dependence Structure of Share Prices among Three Chinese City Banks," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, September.
  48. Elena Ivona Dumitrescu & Georgiana-Denisa Banulescu, 2019. "Do High-frequency-based Measures Improve Conditional Covariance Forecasts?," Post-Print hal-03331122, HAL.
  49. Fabrizio Durante & Roberta Pappadà & Nicola Torelli, 2014. "Clustering of financial time series in risky scenarios," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 8(4), pages 359-376, December.
  50. Wafa Miled & Zied Ftiti & Jean-Michel Sahut, 2022. "Spatial contagion between financial markets: new evidence of asymmetric measures," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1183-1220, June.
  51. Fousekis, Panos, 2020. "Sign and size asymmetry in the stock returns-implied volatility relationship," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
  52. Wadud, Sania & Gronwald, Marc & Durand, Robert B. & Lee, Seungho, 2023. "Co-movement between commodity and equity markets revisited—An application of the Thick Pen method," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  53. Pedro Antonio Martín Cervantes & Salvador Cruz Rambaud & María del Carmen Valls Martínez, 2020. "An Application of the SRA Copulas Approach to Price-Volume Research," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-28, October.
  54. Li, Danyang & Shi, Yukun & Xu, Liao & Xu, Yahua & Zhao, Yang, 2022. "Dynamic asymmetric dependence and portfolio management in cryptocurrency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
  55. Wen, Xiaoqian & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2017. "Can investors of Chinese energy stocks benefit from diversification into commodity futures?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 184-200.
  56. Ahmed, Osama & Serra, Teresa, 2015. "Evaluate the economic consequences of revenue insurance programs in Spain using copula models. The case of orange and apple," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212522, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  57. Guo, Peng & Chen, Si & Chu, Jingchun & Infield, David, 2020. "Wind direction fluctuation analysis for wind turbines," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1026-1035.
  58. Wang, Qin & Li, Xianhua, 2024. "Copula-MIDAS-TRV model for risk spillover analysis − Evidence from the Chinese stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  59. Fousekis, Panos, 2022. "Price risk connectedness in the principal olive oil markets of the EU," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
  60. Mohseni, Soheil & Brent, Alan C. & Kelly, Scott & Browne, Will N., 2022. "Demand response-integrated investment and operational planning of renewable and sustainable energy systems considering forecast uncertainties: A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  61. Wen, Xiaoqian & Cheng, Hua, 2018. "Which is the safe haven for emerging stock markets, gold or the US dollar?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 69-90.
  62. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn & Sokolinskiy, Oleg & van Dijk, Dick, 2014. "Comparing the accuracy of multivariate density forecasts in selected regions of the copula support," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 79-94.
  63. Oh, Dong Hwan & Patton, Andrew J., 2023. "Dynamic factor copula models with estimated cluster assignments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
  64. Wen, Xiaoqian & Xie, Yuxin & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2022. "Extreme price co-movement of commodity futures and industrial production growth: An empirical evaluation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  65. Henryk Gurgul & Robert Syrek & Christoph Mitterer, 2016. "Price duration versus trading volume in high-frequency data for selected DAX companies," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 17(2), pages 241-260.
  66. Hofert, Marius & Oldford, Wayne, 2018. "Visualizing dependence in high-dimensional data: An application to S&P 500 constituent data," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 161-183.
  67. Dong Hwan Oh & Andrew J. Patton, 2021. "Dynamic Factor Copula Models with Estimated Cluster Assignments," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-029r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 06 May 2022.
  68. Kheifets, Igor L., 2018. "Multivariate specification tests based on a dynamic Rosenblatt transform," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-14.
  69. Chen, Xiaohong & Huang, Zhuo & Yi, Yanping, 2021. "Efficient estimation of multivariate semi-nonparametric GARCH filtered copula models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 484-501.
  70. Adlane Haffar & Éric Le Fur, 2022. "Dependence structure of CAT bonds and portfolio diversification: a copula-GARCH approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 297-309, July.
  71. Du, Limin & He, Yanan, 2015. "Extreme risk spillovers between crude oil and stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 455-465.
  72. Li, Haiping & Semeyutin, Artur & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Gozgor, Giray, 2020. "The relationship between oil and financial markets in emerging economies: The significant role of Kazakhstan as the oil exporting country," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
  73. Yijin He & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2019. "Conditional Dependence between Oil Prices and Exchange Rates in BRICS Countries: An Application of the Copula-GARCH Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-25, June.
  74. Fousekis, Panos & Tzaferi, Dimitra, 2022. "Price multifractality and informational efficiency in the futures markets of the US soybean complex," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 66, pages 68-84.
  75. Avdulaj, Krenar & Barunik, Jozef, 2015. "Are benefits from oil–stocks diversification gone? New evidence from a dynamic copula and high frequency data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 31-44.
  76. Andrew J. Patton & Yasin Simsek, 2023. "Generalized Autoregressive Score Trees and Forests," Papers 2305.18991, arXiv.org.
  77. Harvey, A., 2021. "Score-driven time series models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2133, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  78. Fousekis, Panos & Grigoriadis, Vasilis, 2016. "Spatial price dependence by time scale: Empirical evidence from the international butter markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 195-204.
  79. Maziar Sahamkhadam, 2021. "Dynamic copula-based expectile portfolios," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(3), pages 209-223, May.
  80. César Garcia-Gomez & Ana Pérez & Mercedes Prieto-Alaiz, 2022. "The evolution of poverty in the EU-28: a further look based on multivariate tail dependence," Working Papers 605, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
  81. Fan, Yanqin & Han, Fang & Park, Hyeonseok, 2023. "Estimation and inference in a high-dimensional semiparametric Gaussian copula vector autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(1).
  82. Raza, Hamid & Wu, Weiou, 2018. "Quantile dependence between the stock, bond and foreign exchange markets – Evidence from the UK," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 286-296.
  83. Anatolyev, Stanislav & Pyrlik, Vladimir, 2022. "Copula shrinkage and portfolio allocation in ultra-high dimensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  84. Carsten Bormann & Melanie Schienle, 2020. "Detecting Structural Differences in Tail Dependence of Financial Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 380-392, April.
  85. Rafał Wójcik & Charlie Wusuo Liu, 2022. "Bivariate Copula Trees for Gross Loss Aggregation with Positively Dependent Risks," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-24, July.
  86. Xiaohong Chen & Zhuo Huang & Yanping Yi, 2019. "Efficient Estimation of Multivariate Semi-nonparametric GARCH Filtered Copula Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2215, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  87. Ouyang, Ruolan & Zhang, Xuan, 2020. "Financialization of agricultural commodities: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 381-389.
  88. Amjad, Muhammad & Akbar, Muhammad & Ullah, Hamd, 2022. "A copula-based approach for creating an index of micronutrient intakes at household level in Pakistan," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
  89. Bai, Xiwen & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2019. "A copula-GARCH approach for analyzing dynamic conditional dependency structure between liquefied petroleum gas freight rate, product price arbitrage and crude oil price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 412-427.
  90. Guizhou Liu & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "Can One Reinforce Investments in Renewable Energy Stock Indices with the ESG Index?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-19, March.
  91. Allan Timmermann, 2018. "Forecasting Methods in Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 449-479, November.
  92. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Xisong Jin & Hugues Langlois, 2018. "Dynamic Dependence and Diversification in Corporate Credit [Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 521-560.
  93. Ahmed, Osama, 2021. "Assessing the current situation of the world wheat market leadership: Using the semi-parametric approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(2).
  94. Bukre Yildirim Kulekci & Gulden Poyraz & Ismail Gur & Ozan Evkaya, 2023. "Dependence Analysis of the ISE100 Banking Sector Using Vine Copula," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 73(73-1), pages 55-81, June.
  95. Pircalabu, A. & Hvolby, T. & Jung, J. & Høg, E., 2017. "Joint price and volumetric risk in wind power trading: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 139-154.
  96. Fousekis, Panos, 2024. "Price Links Among Qualitatively Differentiated Meats: Evidence from The UK Wholesale Beef Market," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 12(3), July.
  97. Fousekis, Panos & Tzaferi, Dimitra, 2018. "Market connectedness in the US beef supply chain," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 0(Issue 1).
  98. Manner, Hans & Alavi Fard, Farzad & Pourkhanali, Armin & Tafakori, Laleh, 2019. "Forecasting the joint distribution of Australian electricity prices using dynamic vine copulae," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 143-164.
  99. Semeyutin, Artur & O’Neill, Robert, 2019. "A brief survey on the choice of parameters for: “Kernel density estimation for time series data”," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
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