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Oil price and Gulf Corporation Council stock indices: New evidence from time-varying copula models

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  • Fenech, Jean-Pierre
  • Vosgha, Hamed

Abstract

Using a time-varying GJR copula approach, we determine the conditional dependence of the GCC stock indices on oil price between 2007 and 2016. We show how to improve the forecasting accuracy of the co-movement of energy and stock prices in an equally weighted portfolio. Contrary to prior findings, we demonstrate that due to the different co-movements across the GCC stock indices, portfolios of oil assets and several GCC stocks are less likely to be affected by systemic risk. The different co-movements across several stock indices over time provide different entry and exit points for stock investors. This approach is in line with the ‘buy low/sell high’ adage.

Suggested Citation

  • Fenech, Jean-Pierre & Vosgha, Hamed, 2019. "Oil price and Gulf Corporation Council stock indices: New evidence from time-varying copula models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 81-91.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:77:y:2019:i:c:p:81-91
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.09.009
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    15. NIDHALEDDINE BEN CHEIKH & SAMI BEN NACEUR & OUSSAMA KANAAN & Christophe RAULT, 2019. "Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Vector Smooth Transition Models," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2697, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil prices; Copulas; Tail dependence; Co-movement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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