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Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

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Cited by:

  1. Hermann Lotze-Campen & Martin Lampe & Page Kyle & Shinichiro Fujimori & Petr Havlik & Hans Meijl & Tomoko Hasegawa & Alexander Popp & Christoph Schmitz & Andrzej Tabeau & Hugo Valin & Dirk Willenbocke, 2014. "Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 103-116, January.
  2. Dorin, Bruno & Joly, Pierre-Benoît, 2020. "Modelling world agriculture as a learning machine? From mainstream models to Agribiom 1.0," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
  3. Xin Zhao & Dominique Y van der Mensbrugghe & Roman M. Keeney & Wallace E. Tyner, 2021. "Improving the Way Land Use Change is Handled in Economic Models," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Peter Dixon & Joseph Francois & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (ed.), POLICY ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY A Festschrift Celebrating Thomas Hertel, chapter 15, pages 467-515, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  4. Sands, Ronald & Jones, Carol & Marshall, Elizabeth P., 2014. "Global Drivers of Agricultural Demand and Supply," Economic Research Report 186137, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  5. Catherine L. Kling & Raymond W. Arritt & Gray Calhoun & David A. Keiser, 2016. "Research Needs and Challenges in the FEW System: Coupling Economic Models with Agronomic, Hydrologic, and Bioenergy Models for Sustainable Food, Energy, and Water Systems," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 16-wp563, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  6. Bruno Lanz & Simon Dietz & Tim Swanson, 2018. "Global Economic Growth and Agricultural Land Conversion under Uncertain Productivity Improvements in Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(2), pages 545-569.
  7. Nelson B. Villoria & Derek Byerlee & James Stevenson, 2014. "The Effects of Agricultural Technological Progress on Deforestation: What Do We Really Know?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 211-237.
  8. Angelo C. Gurgel & John Reilly & Elodie Blanc, 2021. "Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-21, June.
  9. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
  10. Angelo C. Gurgel & Joaquim E. A. Seabra & Sofia M. Arantes & Marcelo M. R. Moreira & Lee R. Lynd & Rosana Galindo, 2024. "Contribution of double-cropped maize ethanol in Brazil to sustainable development," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 7(11), pages 1429-1440, November.
  11. PHILIPPIDIS George & BARTELINGS H. & HELMING John & M'BAREK Robert & RONZON Tevecia & SMEETS Edward & VAN MEIJL Hans & SHUTES Lindsay, 2018. "The MAGNET model framework for assessing policy coherence and SDGs: Application to the bioeconomy," JRC Research Reports JRC111508, Joint Research Centre.
  12. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
  13. He, Songtang & Wang, Daojie & Li, Yong & Fang, Yingchao & Lan, Huijuan & Chen, Wenle, 2019. "Implementation of a landscape ecological use pattern model: Debris flow waste-shoal land use in the Yeyatang Basin, Yunnan Province, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 483-492.
  14. Kuhn, Arnim & Britz, Wolfgang, 2021. "Long-Term Scenarios for Sub-Saharan Africa’s Agro-Food Markets with Varying Population, Income and Crop Productivity Trends," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 46(01), January.
  15. Bruno Lanz & Simon Dietz & Tim Swanson, 2016. "Economic growth and agricultural land conversion under uncertain productivity improvements in agriculture," GRI Working Papers 240, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  16. Arki, Vesa & Koskikala, Joni & Fagerholm, Nora & Kisanga, Danielson & Käyhkö, Niina, 2020. "Associations between local land use/land cover and place-based landscape service patterns in rural Tanzania," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
  17. A. V. Pastor & A. Palazzo & P. Havlik & H. Biemans & Y. Wada & M. Obersteiner & P. Kabat & F. Ludwig, 2019. "The global nexus of food–trade–water sustaining environmental flows by 2050," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 499-507, June.
  18. Sherman Robinson & Hans Meijl & Dirk Willenbockel & Hugo Valin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Toshihiko Masui & Ron Sands & Marshall Wise & Katherine Calvin & Petr Havlik & Daniel Mason d'Croz & Andrzej Tabe, 2014. "Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 21-35, January.
  19. Jennifer Morris & Angelo Gurgel & Bryan K. Mignone & Haroon Kheshgi & Sergey Paltsev, 2024. "Mutual reinforcement of land-based carbon dioxide removal and international emissions trading in deep decarbonization scenarios," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
  20. Searchinger, Timothy D. & Beringer, Tim & Strong, Asa, 2017. "Does the world have low-carbon bioenergy potential from the dedicated use of land?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 434-446.
  21. Naso, Pedro & Lanz, Bruno & Swanson, Tim, 2020. "The return of Malthus? Resource constraints in an era of declining population growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  22. Lanz, Bruno & Dietz, Simon & Swanson, Tim, 2018. "The Expansion of Modern Agriculture and Global Biodiversity Decline: An Integrated Assessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 260-277.
  23. Jean Foure & Angel Aguiar & Ruben Bibas & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Julien Lefevre & Marian Leimbach & Luis Rey-Los-Santos & Hugo Valin, 2020. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Baseline Scenarios in Dynamic CGE models: Review and Guidelines Proposal," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 28-62, June.
  24. Gaupp, Franziska & Hall, Jim & Mitchell, Dann & Dadson, Simon, 2019. "Increasing risks of multiple breadbasket failure under 1.5 and 2 °C global warming," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 34-45.
  25. Frank, Stefan & Witzke, Heinz-Peter & Zimmermann, Andrea & Havlík, Petr & Ciaian, Pavel, 2014. "Climate change impacts on European agriculture: a multi model perspective," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 183025, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  26. Martin Lampe & Dirk Willenbockel & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Yongxia Cai & Katherine Calvin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campe, 2014. "Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 3-20, January.
  27. Sohl, Terry L. & Wimberly, Michael C. & Radeloff, Volker C. & Theobald, David M. & Sleeter, Benjamin M., 2016. "Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 337(C), pages 281-297.
  28. Claudia Tebaldi & David Lobell, 2018. "Estimated impacts of emission reductions on wheat and maize crops," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 533-545, February.
  29. Freund, Florian & Soisontes, Sakson & Laquai, Verena & Banse, Martin, 2025. "Global land-use implications of preference shifts towards regional feed and sustainable diets in Germany and the European Union," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
  30. Food and Agricultural Organization [FAO], 2016. "Climate Change and Food Systems: Global Assessments and Implications for Food Security and Trade," Working Papers id:8512, eSocialSciences.
  31. Yang Chen & Martha M. Bakker & Arend Ligtenberg & Arnold K. Bregt, 2016. "How Are Feedbacks Represented in Land Models?," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-20, September.
  32. Kuiper, Marijke & Cui, Hao David, 2021. "Using food loss reduction to reach food security and environmental objectives – A search for promising leverage points," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
  33. Fernández, Francisco J. & Blanco, Maria, 2015. "Modelling the economic impacts of climate change on global and European agriculture: Review of economic structural approaches," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-53.
  34. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine V. & Wise, Marshall A. & Iyer, Gokul, 2021. "The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-17.
  35. Naso, Pedro & Haznedar, Ozgun & Lanz, Bruno & Swanson, Tim, 2022. "A macroeconomic approach to global land use policy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  36. Schuenemann, Franziska & Delzeit, Ruth, 2017. "Higher income and higher prices: the role of demand specifications and elasticities of livestock products for global land use," Conference papers 332905, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
  37. He, Songtang & Wang, Daojie & Zhao, Peng & Li, Yong & Lan, Huijuan & Chen, Wenle & Jamali, Ali Akbar, 2020. "A review and prospects of debris flow waste-shoal land use in typical debris flow areas, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  38. Heinz-Peter Witzke & Pavel Ciaian & Jacques Delince, 2014. "CAPRI long-term climate change scenario analysis: The AgMIP approach," JRC Research Reports JRC85872, Joint Research Centre.
  39. Rozenstein, Offer & Haymann, Nitai & Kaplan, Gregoriy & Tanny, Josef, 2019. "Validation of the cotton crop coefficient estimation model based on Sentinel-2 imagery and eddy covariance measurements," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 1-1.
  40. Catherine L. Kling & Raymond W. Arritt & Gray Calhoun & David A. Keiser, 2017. "Integrated Assessment Models of the Food, Energy, and Water Nexus: A Review and an Outline of Research Needs," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 143-163, October.
  41. Choi, Hyung Sik & Entenmann, Steffen K., 2019. "Land in the EU for perennial biomass crops from freed-up agricultural land: A sensitivity analysis considering yields, diet, market liberalization and world food prices," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 292-306.
  42. Ignacio Cazcarro & Carlos A. López‐Morales & Faye Duchin, 2019. "The global economic costs of substituting dietary protein from fish with meat, grains and legumes, and dairy," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 23(5), pages 1159-1171, October.
  43. Bai, Yuping & Deng, Xiangzheng & Cheng, Yunfei & Hu, Yecui & Zhang, Lijin, 2021. "Exploring regional land use dynamics under shared socioeconomic pathways: A case study in Inner Mongolia, China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
  44. Dumortier, Jerome & Elobeid, Amani, 2021. "Effects of a carbon tax in the United States on agricultural markets and carbon emissions from land-use change," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  45. Palazzo,Amanda & Valin,Hugo Jean Pierre & Batka,Miroslav & Havlík,Petr, 2019. "Investment Needs for Irrigation Infrastructure along Different Socioeconomic Pathways," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8744, The World Bank.
  46. van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Jeffrey C. Peters, 2020. "Volume Preserving CES and CET Formulations," GTAP Working Papers 6160, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  47. Gerald C. Nelson & Dominique Mensbrugghe & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Katherine Calvin & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Martin Lampe & Daniel Ma, 2014. "Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 85-101, January.
  48. Liu, Dongya & Zheng, Xinqi & Wang, Hongbin & Zhang, Chunxiao & Li, Jiayang & Lv, Yongqiang, 2018. "Interoperable scenario simulation of land-use policy for Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 155-165.
  49. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2023. "Interactions Between U.S. Vehicle Electrification, Climate Change, and Global Agricultural Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(1), pages 99-123, January.
  50. Robert M’Barek & George Philippidis & Tevecia Ronzon, 2019. "Alternative global transition pathways to 2050: Prospects for the bioeconomy?," JRC Research Reports JRC118064, Joint Research Centre.
  51. Goetz, Ariane & Searchinger, Tim & Beringer, Tim & German, Laura & McKay, Ben & Oliveira, Gustavo de L.T. & Hunsberger, Carol, 2018. "Reply to commentary on the special issue Scaling up biofuels? A critical look at expectations, performance and governance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 658-665.
  52. Elke Stehfest & Willem-Jan Zeist & Hugo Valin & Petr Havlik & Alexander Popp & Page Kyle & Andrzej Tabeau & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Tomoko Hasegawa & Benjamin L. Bodirsky & Katherine Calvin & Jonathan C, 2019. "Key determinants of global land-use projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
  53. Kipling, Richard P. & Bannink, André & Bellocchi, Gianni & Dalgaard, Tommy & Fox, Naomi J. & Hutchings, Nicholas J. & Kjeldsen, Chris & Lacetera, Nicola & Sinabell, Franz & Topp, Cairistiona F.E. & va, 2016. "Modeling European ruminant production systems: Facing the challenges of climate change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 24-37.
  54. Piquer-Rodríguez, M. & Baumann, M. & Butsic, V. & Gasparri, H.I. & Gavier-Pizarro, G. & Volante, J.N. & Müller, D. & Kuemmerle, T., 2018. "The potential impact of economic policies on future land-use conversions in Argentina," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 57-67.
  55. Grundy, Michael J. & Bryan, Brett A. & Nolan, Martin & Battaglia, Michael & Hatfield-Dodds, Steve & Connor, Jeffery D. & Keating, Brian A., 2016. "Scenarios for Australian agricultural production and land use to 2050," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 70-83.
  56. Richard D. Robertson & Alessandro De Pinto & Nicola Cenacchi, 2023. "Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-22, August.
  57. Fujimori, S. & Kainuma, M. & Masui, T. & Hasegawa, T. & Dai, H., 2014. "The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 379-391.
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