IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/apecpp/v36y2014i2p211-237..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effects of Agricultural Technological Progress on Deforestation: What Do We Really Know?

Author

Listed:
  • Nelson B. Villoria
  • Derek Byerlee
  • James Stevenson

Abstract

Increasing agricultural yields seem an obvious way to satisfy increasing demands for food and fuel while minimizing expansion of agriculture into forest areas; however, an influential literature worries that promoting agricultural innovation could enhance agriculture's profitability thereby encouraging deforestation. Clarifying the effects of agricultural technological progress on deforestation is therefore crucial for designing effective policy responses to the challenges faced by global agriculture. In this article we review the empirical evidence on these effects and synthesize estimates of future global cropland expansion. Our main insights are that: (i) the empirical evidence on a positive link between regional technological progress and deforestation is much weaker than what seems generally accepted; (ii) at a global level, most analysts expect broad based technological progress to be land saving; however, composition effects are important as low-yield, land-abundant regions are likely to experience further land expansion. Toward the future, empirical work understanding how localized technological progress in agriculture transmits through international trade and commodity markets will help to bridge the gap between the findings of local, econometric, studies on the one hand and global, model based, studies on the other.

Suggested Citation

  • Nelson B. Villoria & Derek Byerlee & James Stevenson, 2014. "The Effects of Agricultural Technological Progress on Deforestation: What Do We Really Know?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 211-237.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:apecpp:v:36:y:2014:i:2:p:211-237.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/aepp/ppu005
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kanlaya J. Barr & Bruce A. Babcock & Miguel A. Carriquiry & Andre M. Nassar & Leila Harfuch, 2011. "Agricultural Land Elasticities in the United States and Brazil," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 449-462.
    2. Shively, Gerald & Pagiola, Stefano, 2004. "Agricultural intensification, local labor markets, and deforestation in the Philippines," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 241-266, May.
    3. Roman Keeney & Thomas W. Hertel, 2009. "The Indirect Land Use Impacts of United States Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(4), pages 895-909.
    4. Chomitz, Kenneth M & Gray, David A, 1996. "Roads, Land Use, and Deforestation: A Spatial Model Applied to Belize," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(3), pages 487-512, September.
    5. Baldos, Uris Lantz & Thomas Hertel, 2012. "SIMPLE: a Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use and the Environment," GTAP Working Papers 4021, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    6. Arcand, Jean-Louis & Guillaumont, Patrick & Jeanneney, Sylviane Guillaumont, 2008. "Deforestation and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 242-262, June.
    7. Miet Maertens & Manfred Zeller & Regina Birner, 2006. "Sustainable agricultural intensification in forest frontier areas," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 34(2), pages 197-206, March.
    8. Edward B. Barbier, 2001. "The Economics of Tropical Deforestation and Land Use: An Introduction to the Special Issue," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 77(2), pages 155-171.
    9. Jesse H. Ausubel & Iddo K. Wernick & Paul E. Waggoner, 2013. "Peak Farmland and the Prospect for Land Sparing," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 38, pages 221-242, February.
    10. E. B. Barbier & J. C. Burgess, 2001. "The Economics of Tropical Deforestation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 413-433, July.
    11. Hertel, Thomas, 2012. "Implications of Agricultural Productivity for Global Cropland Use and GHG Emissions: Borlaug vs. Jevons," GTAP Working Papers 4020, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    12. Michetti, Melania, 2012. "Modelling Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry in Climate Change: A Review of Major Approaches," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 130546, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    13. Gerald C. Nelson & Daniel Hellerstein, 1997. "Do Roads Cause Deforestation? Using Satellite Images in Econometric Analysis of Land Use," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 80-88.
    14. Nelson B. Villoria & Thomas W. Hertel, 2011. "Geography Matters: International Trade Patterns and the Indirect Land Use Effects of Biofuels," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(4), pages 919-935.
    15. Hertel, Thomas W., 2010. "The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 92639, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Bhattarai, Madhusudan & Hammig, Michael, 2001. "Institutions and the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Deforestation: A Crosscountry Analysis for Latin America, Africa and Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 995-1010, June.
    17. Monica Fisher & Gerald E. Shively & Steven Buccola, 2005. "Activity Choice, Labor Allocation, and Forest Use in Malawi," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 81(4).
    18. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    19. Thomas W. Hertel, 2011. "The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?-super- 1," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(2), pages 259-275.
    20. Angelsen, Arild, 1999. "Agricultural expansion and deforestation: modelling the impact of population, market forces and property rights," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 185-218, February.
    21. Deininger, Klaus W & Minten, Bart, 1999. "Poverty, Policies, and Deforestation: The Case of Mexico," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 313-344, January.
    22. Derek Byerlee & Klaus Deininger & Jonathan Lindsay & Andrew Norton & Mercedes Stickler & Harris Selod, 2011. "Rising Global Interest in Farmland : Can it Yield Sustainable and Equitable Benefits?," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2263.
    23. Lee, Huey-Lin & Hertel, Thomas & Rose, Steven & Avetisyan, Misak, 2008. "An Integrated Global Land Use Data Base for CGE Analysis of Climate Policy Options," GTAP Working Papers 2603, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    24. Steven K. Rose & Alla A. Golub & Brent Sohngen, 2013. "Total Factor and Relative Agricultural Productivity and Deforestation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 426-434.
    25. Hertel, Thomas, 2012. "Implications of Agricultural Productivity for Global Cropland Use and GHG Emissions: Borlaug vs. Jevons," GTAP Working Papers 4020, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    26. repec:bla:jecsur:v:15:y:2001:i:3:p:413-33 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Petr Havlík & Hugo Valin & Aline Mosnier & Michael Obersteiner & Justin S. Baker & Mario Herrero & Mariana C. Rufino & Erwin Schmid, 2013. "Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for Land Use Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 442-448.
    28. Angelsen, Arild & Kaimowitz, David, 1999. "Rethinking the Causes of Deforestation: Lessons from Economic Models," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 14(1), pages 73-98, February.
    29. Gerald C. Nelson & Dominique Mensbrugghe & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Katherine Calvin & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Martin Lampe & Daniel Ma, 2014. "Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 85-101, January.
    30. A. Mosnier & P. Havlík & M. Obersteiner & K. Aoki & E. Schmid & S. Fritz & I. McCallum & S. Leduc, 2014. "Modeling Impact of Development Trajectories and a Global Agreement on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation on Congo Basin Forests by 2030," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 57(4), pages 505-525, April.
    31. Baldos, Uris Lantz & Thomas Hertel, 2012. "SIMPLE: a Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use and the Environment," GTAP Working Papers 4021, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    32. Christoph Schmitz & Hans van Meijl & Page Kyle & Gerald C. Nelson & Shinichiro Fujimori & Angelo Gurgel & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Daniel Mason d'Croz & Alexander Popp & Ron Sands & Andrzej Tabea, 2014. "Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 69-84, January.
    33. Fisher, Monica G. & Shively, Gerald E., 2007. "Agricultural Subsidies and Forest Pressure in Malawi's Miombo Woodlands," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 1-14, August.
    34. Barr, Kanlaya Jintanakul, 2011. "Agricultural Land Elasticities in the United States and Brazil," Staff General Research Papers Archive 34893, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    35. Gerald E. Shively, 2001. "Agricultural Change, Rural Labor Markets, and Forest Clearing: An Illustrative Case from the Philippines," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 77(2), pages 268-284.
    36. Cropper, Maureen & Griffiths, Charles, 1994. "The Interaction of Population Growth and Environmental Quality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 250-254, May.
    37. Hayami, Yujiro & Ruttan, V W, 1970. "Factor Prices and Technical Change in Agricultural Development: The United States and Japan, 1880-1960," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(5), pages 1115-1141, Sept.-Oct.
    38. Gerald Shively & Monica Fisher, 2004. "Smallholder Labor and Deforestation: A Systems Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1361-1366.
    39. Nelson B. Villoria & Alla Golub & Derek Byerlee & James Stevenson, 2013. "Will Yield Improvements on the Forest Frontier Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions? A Global Analysis of Oil Palm," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1301-1308.
    40. Hertel, Thomas & Rose, Steven & Tol, Richard, 2008. "Land Use in Computable General Equilibrium Models: An Overview," GTAP Working Papers 2595, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    41. Andrew D. Foster & Mark R. Rosenzweig, 2003. "Economic Growth and the Rise of Forests," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 601-637.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elisabeth Hettig & Jann Lay & Kacana Sipangule, 2016. "Drivers of Households’ Land-Use Decisions: A Critical Review of Micro-Level Studies in Tropical Regions," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-32, October.
    2. Ngoma, Hambulo & Pelletier, Johanne & Mulenga, Brian P. & Subakanya, Mitelo, 2021. "Climate-smart agriculture, cropland expansion and deforestation in Zambia: Linkages, processes and drivers," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    3. Laetitia Duval & François-Charles Wolff, 2009. "L'effet des transferts migratoires sur la déforestation dans les pays en développement," Working Papers hal-00421222, HAL.
    4. Novice Patrick Bakehe, 2020. "L'accès à l’électricité: une solution pour réduire la déforestation en Afrique?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 338-348, September.
    5. Ngoma, Hambulo & Angelsen, Arild, 2018. "Can conservation agriculture save tropical forests? The case of minimum tillage in Zambia," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 153-162.
    6. Jean-Louis Combes & Pascale Combes Motel & Philippe Delacote, 2014. "Public expenses, credit and natural capital: Substitution or complementarity?," Working Papers halshs-00979191, HAL.
    7. Claudio Ferraz, 2015. "Explaining Agriculture Expansion and Deforestation: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon – 1980/98," Discussion Papers 0106, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    8. Combes, Jean-Louis & Delacote, Philippe & Combes Motel, Pascale & Yogo, Thierry Urbain, 2018. "Public spending, credit and natural capital: Does access to capital foster deforestation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 306-316.
    9. Robert Innes & George Frisvold, 2009. "The Economics of Endangered Species," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 485-512, September.
    10. Leblois, Antoine & Damette, Olivier & Wolfersberger, Julien, 2017. "What has Driven Deforestation in Developing Countries Since the 2000s? Evidence from New Remote-Sensing Data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 82-102.
    11. Barbier,Edward B., 2007. "Natural Resources and Economic Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521706513.
    12. Zwane, Alix Peterson, 2007. "Does poverty constrain deforestation? Econometric evidence from Peru," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 330-349, September.
    13. Galinato, Gregmar I. & Galinato, Suzette P., 2013. "The short-run and long-run effects of corruption control and political stability on forest cover," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 153-161.
    14. Jouf, C. & Lawson, L.A., 2022. "European farmers’ responses to higher commodity prices: Cropland expansion or forestlands preservation?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    15. Kinda, Harouna & Thiombiano, Noel, 2021. "The effects of extractive industries rent on deforestation in developing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    16. Chouaib Jouf & Laté Lawson, 2021. "European farmers’ responses to higher commodity prices: cropland expansion or forestlands preservation?," EconomiX Working Papers 2021-10, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    17. Sébastien MARCHAND, 2010. "Technical Ef?ciency, Farm Size and Tropical Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazonian Forest," Working Papers 201012, CERDI.
    18. Babigumira, Ronnie & Angelsen, Arild & Buis, Maarten & Bauch, Simone & Sunderland, Terry & Wunder, Sven, 2014. "Forest Clearing in Rural Livelihoods: Household-Level Global-Comparative Evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(S1), pages 67-79.
    19. Sébastien Marchand, 2011. "Technical Efficiency, Farm Size and Tropical Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazonian Forest," Working Papers halshs-00552981, HAL.
    20. Ajanaku, B.A. & Collins, A.R., 2021. "Economic growth and deforestation in African countries: Is the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis applicable?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:apecpp:v:36:y:2014:i:2:p:211-237.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.