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Key determinants of global land-use projections

Author

Listed:
  • Elke Stehfest

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Willem-Jan Zeist

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Hugo Valin

    (International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA))

  • Petr Havlik

    (International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA))

  • Alexander Popp

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Page Kyle

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Andrzej Tabeau

    (Wageningen University and Research)

  • Daniel Mason-D’Croz

    (International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
    Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO))

  • Tomoko Hasegawa

    (International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
    National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
    Ritsumeikan University, 1-1-1, Nojihigashi, Kusatsu)

  • Benjamin L. Bodirsky

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Katherine Calvin

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Jonathan C. Doelman

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Shinichiro Fujimori

    (International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
    National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
    Kyoto University)

  • Florian Humpenöder

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Hermann Lotze-Campen

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Hans Meijl

    (Wageningen University and Research)

  • Keith Wiebe

    (International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI))

Abstract

Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Elke Stehfest & Willem-Jan Zeist & Hugo Valin & Petr Havlik & Alexander Popp & Page Kyle & Andrzej Tabeau & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Tomoko Hasegawa & Benjamin L. Bodirsky & Katherine Calvin & Jonathan C, 2019. "Key determinants of global land-use projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-09945-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w
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    Cited by:

    1. Xin Zhao & Bryan K. Mignone & Marshall A. Wise & Haewon C. McJeon, 2024. "Trade-offs in land-based carbon removal measures under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Arshad, Salman & Ahmad, Sajid Rashid & Abbas, Sawaid & Asharf, Ather & Siddiqui, Nadia Asad & Islam, Zia ul, 2022. "Quantifying the contribution of diminishing green spaces and urban sprawl to urban heat island effect in a rapidly urbanizing metropolitan city of Pakistan," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Florian Humpenöder & Alexander Popp & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Anton Orlov & Michael Gregory Windisch & Inga Menke & Julia Pongratz & Felix Havermann & Wim Thiery & Fei Luo & Patrick v. Jeetze & J, 2022. "Overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Müller-Casseres, Eduardo & Edelenbosch, Oreane Y. & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2021. "Global futures of trade impacting the challenge to decarbonize the international shipping sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    5. Yu, Wusheng & Clora, Francesco & Costa, Louis & Baudry, Gino, 2021. "Dietary Transitions As Climate Mitigation Measures in Europe: Implications of Supply-Side Responses and Trade Policy Regimes," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315912, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Sarfo, Isaac & Bi, Shuoben & Xu, Xiuhua & Yeboah, Emmanuel & Kwang, Clement & Batame, Michael & Addai, Foster Kofi & Adamu, Umar Wakil & Appea, Emmanuella Aboagye & Djan, Michael Atuahene & Otchwemah,, 2023. "Planning for cooler cities in Ghana: Contribution of green infrastructure to urban heat mitigation in Kumasi Metropolis," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Mark Bomford, 2023. "More bytes per acre: do vertical farming’s land sparing promises stand on solid ground?," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 40(3), pages 879-895, September.
    8. Bruno, Daniel & Sorando, Ricardo & Álvarez-Farizo, Begoña & Castellano, Clara & Céspedes, Vanessa & Gallardo, Belinda & Jiménez, Juan J. & López, M. Victoria & López-Flores, Rocío & Moret-Fernández, D, 2021. "Depopulation impacts on ecosystem services in Mediterranean rural areas," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

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