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CAPRI long-term climate change scenario analysis: The AgMIP approach

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Abstract

The current paper investigates the long-term global effects of crops productivity changes under different climate scenarios and the impact of biofuels expansion using the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact (CAPRI) model. These analyses are conducted in the framework of the AgMIP project (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project). The results indicate that globally there will be both winners and losers, with some regions benefitting from agricultural production adjustment as a result of climate change whilst most regions suffering losses in production and consumption. Biofuel expansion leads to land relocation away from crop agricultural commodity production to new energy crops which is reflected in lower production levels of agricultural commodities and higher agricultural prices.

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  • Heinz-Peter Witzke & Pavel Ciaian & Jacques Delince, 2014. "CAPRI long-term climate change scenario analysis: The AgMIP approach," JRC Research Reports JRC85872, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc85872
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    Cited by:

    1. Shrestha, Shailesh & Hennessy, Thia & Abdalla, Mohamed & Forristal, Dermot & Jones, Michael B., 2014. "Determining Short Term Responses of Irish Dairy Farms under Climate Change," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 63(03), pages 1-13, September.
    2. Syp, Alina, 2015. "Projekcja Zmian Wielkości Plonów Pszenicy W Polsce I Unii Europejskiej W Latach 2030 I 2050 Na Podstawie Modelu Capri," Roczniki (Annals), Polish Association of Agricultural Economists and Agribusiness - Stowarzyszenie Ekonomistow Rolnictwa e Agrobiznesu (SERiA), vol. 2015(2), April.
    3. Fernández, Francisco J. & Blanco, Maria, 2014. "Integration of biophysical and agro-economic models to assess the economic effects of climate change on agriculture: A review of global and EU regional approaches," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-48, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Shrestha, Shailesh & Hennessy, Thia & Abdalla, Mohamed & Forristal, Dermot & Jones, Michael B., 2014. "Determining Short Term Responses of Irish Dairy Farms under Climate Change," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 63(3).
    5. Fernández, Francisco J. & Blanco, Maria, 2015. "Modelling the economic impacts of climate change on global and European agriculture: Review of economic structural approaches," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-53.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; Lung-run modelling; Agriculture; Productivity; Biofuels;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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