IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332905.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Higher income and higher prices: the role of demand specifications and elasticities of livestock products for global land use

Author

Listed:
  • Schuenemann, Franziska
  • Delzeit, Ruth

Abstract

Global land use change is influenced by changes in diets towards more livestock products as well as additional demand for biomass from a growing biofuels industry. Global simulation models trying to quantify future food demand and subsequent land use change often differ in their results due to different demand specifications and elasticities. In order to isolate the impact of the latter on food demand and subsequent land use change we calibrate the global CGE model DART-BIO to different demand specifications and test the effect of changing income elasticities for livestock products. Our findings confirm the importance of demand specifications and income elasticities in influencing final models results, as the size of fixed subsistence quantities in the linear expenditure system (LES) determines the overall flexibility of demand. Large subsistence quantities dampen the responsiveness of private demand to income and price changes and lead to unrealistic reductions in global land use. As income elasticities of livestock demand in China and India become less elastic with growing income, the subsequent decrease in demand for livestock products and fodder crops affects land use worldwide. In general, there is some land use change at the expense of either soybeans or wheat in favor of oilseeds in all regions although the percentages remain very small. In addition, our results imply that the positive impact of biofuel production on livestock output as found by other studies is not reciprocal.

Suggested Citation

  • Schuenemann, Franziska & Delzeit, Ruth, 2017. "Higher income and higher prices: the role of demand specifications and elasticities of livestock products for global land use," Conference papers 332905, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332905
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332905/files/8726.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christoph Schmitz & Hans van Meijl & Page Kyle & Gerald C. Nelson & Shinichiro Fujimori & Angelo Gurgel & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Daniel Mason d'Croz & Alexander Popp & Ron Sands & Andrzej Tabea, 2014. "Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 69-84, January.
    2. Farzad Taheripour & Thomas W. Hertel & Wallace E. Tyner, 2011. "Implications of biofuels mandates for the global livestock industry: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(3), pages 325-342, May.
    3. Hertel, Thomas, 2010. "The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making? AAEA Presidential Address," GTAP Working Papers 3428, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    4. Hertel, Thomas W., 2010. "The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 92639, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Bennett, Merrill K., 1941. "Wheat in National Diets," Wheat Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 18(02), pages 1-44, October.
    6. Hugo Valin & Ronald D. Sands & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Gerald C. Nelson & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Benjamin Bodirsky & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe, 2014. "The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 51-67, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gerald C. Nelson & Dominique Mensbrugghe & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Katherine Calvin & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Martin Lampe & Daniel Ma, 2014. "Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 85-101, January.
    2. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    3. Elke Stehfest & Willem-Jan Zeist & Hugo Valin & Petr Havlik & Alexander Popp & Page Kyle & Andrzej Tabeau & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Tomoko Hasegawa & Benjamin L. Bodirsky & Katherine Calvin & Jonathan C, 2019. "Key determinants of global land-use projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    5. Sherman Robinson & Hans Meijl & Dirk Willenbockel & Hugo Valin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Toshihiko Masui & Ron Sands & Marshall Wise & Katherine Calvin & Petr Havlik & Daniel Mason d'Croz & Andrzej Tabe, 2014. "Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 21-35, January.
    6. Martin Lampe & Dirk Willenbockel & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Yongxia Cai & Katherine Calvin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campe, 2014. "Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 3-20, January.
    7. Dumortier, Jerome & Elobeid, Amani, 2021. "Effects of a carbon tax in the United States on agricultural markets and carbon emissions from land-use change," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    8. Christophe Gouel & Houssein Guimbard, 2019. "Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(2), pages 383-403.
    9. Yi Cui & Thomas Glauben & Wei Si & Qiran Zhao, 2023. "The effect of Internet usage on dietary quality: Evidence from rural China," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(S1), pages 1478-1494, December.
    10. Ignacio Cazcarro & Carlos A. López‐Morales & Faye Duchin, 2019. "The global economic costs of substituting dietary protein from fish with meat, grains and legumes, and dairy," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 23(5), pages 1159-1171, October.
    11. Palazzo,Amanda & Valin,Hugo Jean Pierre & Batka,Miroslav & Havlík,Petr, 2019. "Investment Needs for Irrigation Infrastructure along Different Socioeconomic Pathways," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8744, The World Bank.
    12. Food and Agricultural Organization [FAO], 2016. "Climate Change and Food Systems: Global Assessments and Implications for Food Security and Trade," Working Papers id:8512, eSocialSciences.
    13. Brown, Jason P. & Weber, Jeremy G. & Wojan, Timothy R., 2013. "Emerging Energy Industries and Rural Growth," Economic Research Report 262215, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    14. van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Jeffrey C. Peters, 2020. "Volume Preserving CES and CET Formulations," GTAP Working Papers 6160, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    15. Sands, Ronald & Jones, Carol & Marshall, Elizabeth P., 2014. "Global Drivers of Agricultural Demand and Supply," Economic Research Report 186137, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    16. Ricardo Arguello C & Daniel Valderrama G. & Sandra Acero W., 2011. "Poverty impacts of agricultural policy adjustments in an opening economy: the case of Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo 8575, Universidad del Rosario.
    17. Searchinger, Timothy D. & Beringer, Tim & Strong, Asa, 2017. "Does the world have low-carbon bioenergy potential from the dedicated use of land?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 434-446.
    18. Bai, Yuping & Deng, Xiangzheng & Cheng, Yunfei & Hu, Yecui & Zhang, Lijin, 2021. "Exploring regional land use dynamics under shared socioeconomic pathways: A case study in Inner Mongolia, China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    19. Kipling, Richard P. & Bannink, André & Bellocchi, Gianni & Dalgaard, Tommy & Fox, Naomi J. & Hutchings, Nicholas J. & Kjeldsen, Chris & Lacetera, Nicola & Sinabell, Franz & Topp, Cairistiona F.E. & va, 2016. "Modeling European ruminant production systems: Facing the challenges of climate change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 24-37.
    20. Alla A. Golub & Thomas W. Hertel, 2012. "Modeling Land-Use Change Impacts Of Biofuels In The Gtap-Bio Framework," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-30.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Livestock Production/Industries;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332905. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.