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The global nexus of food–trade–water sustaining environmental flows by 2050

Author

Listed:
  • A. V. Pastor

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Wageningen University
    Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon)

  • A. Palazzo

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • P. Havlik

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • H. Biemans

    (Wageningen University and Research)

  • Y. Wada

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • M. Obersteiner

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • P. Kabat

    (Wageningen University
    World Meteorological Organization)

  • F. Ludwig

    (Wageningen University)

Abstract

In the face of meeting Sustainable Development Goals for the water–food–energy–ecosystems nexus, integrated assessments are a great means to measure the impact of global change on natural resources. In this study, we evaluate the impact of climate change with the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario and the impact of socioeconomics with the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 scenario on land use, water consumption and food trade under four water regulation policy scenarios (invest, exploit, environment and environment+). We used the Global Biosphere Management Model and constrained it with water availability, environmental flow requirements, and water use from agriculture, industry and households (simulated using the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land model, Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model and WaterGap model). Here, we show that an increase in land use by 100 Mha would be required to double food production by 2050, to meet projected food demands. International trade would need to nearly triple to meet future crop demands, with an additional 10–20% trade flow from water-abundant regions to water-scarce regions to sustain environmental flow requirements on a global scale.

Suggested Citation

  • A. V. Pastor & A. Palazzo & P. Havlik & H. Biemans & Y. Wada & M. Obersteiner & P. Kabat & F. Ludwig, 2019. "The global nexus of food–trade–water sustaining environmental flows by 2050," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 499-507, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:2:y:2019:i:6:d:10.1038_s41893-019-0287-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0287-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fuss, Sabine & Havlik, Petr & Szolgayova, Jana & Schmid, Erwin & Obersteiner, Michael, 2011. "Large-Scale Modelling of Global Food Security and Adaptation under Crop Yield Uncertainty," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114347, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Martin Lampe & Dirk Willenbockel & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Yongxia Cai & Katherine Calvin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campe, 2014. "Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 3-20, January.
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    1. Jianjian He & Siqi Wang & Reinout Heijungs & Yi Yang & Shumiao Shu & Weiwen Zhang & Anqi Xu & Kai Fang, 2024. "Interprovincial food trade aggravates China’s land scarcity," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Zhao, Jiongchao & Han, Tong & Wang, Chong & Shi, Xiaoyu & Wang, Kaicheng & Zhao, Mingyu & Chen, Fu & Chu, Qingquan, 2022. "Assessing variation and driving factors of the county-scale water footprint for soybean production in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).

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