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Spurious Periodicity In Inappropriately Detrended Time Series

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Cited by:

  1. Ghazanchyan, Manuk, 2014. "Unraveling the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Sri Lanka," MPRA Paper 59444, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Günes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2018. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(3), pages 550-566, July.
  3. Luciano Gutierrez, 2001. "Borrowing constraints and the agricultural investment decision process," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 101-114.
  4. Altig, David & Carlstrom, Charles T, 1991. "Inflation, Personal Taxes, and Real Output: A Dynamic Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 547-571, August.
  5. José Luis Cendejas & Félix-Fernando Muñoz & Nadia Fernández-de-Pinedo, 2017. "A contribution to the analysis of historical economic fluctuations (1870–2010): filtering, spurious cycles, and unobserved component modeling," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 93-125, January.
  6. Cribari-Neto, Francisco, 1996. "On time series econometrics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 37-60.
  7. Robert F. Engle & Joao Victor Issler, 1993. "Estimating Sectoral Cycles Using Cointegration and Common Features," NBER Working Papers 4529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Joël Cariolle & Michaël Goujon, 2015. "Measuring Macroeconomic Instability: A Critical Survey Illustrated With Exports Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 1-26, February.
  9. Schenk-Hoppé Klaus Reiner, 2001. "Economic Growth and Business Cycles: A Critical Comment on Detrending Time Series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-13, April.
  10. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Productivity and GDP: international evidence of persistence and trends over 130 years of data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1219-1246, March.
  12. Sean J. Gossel & Nicholas Biekpe, 2013. "The Cyclical Relationships Between South Africa's Net Capital Inflows and Fiscal and Monetary Policies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 64-83, March.
  13. Nelson, Charles R., 1988. "Spurious trend and cycle in the state space decomposition of a time series with a unit root," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 475-488.
  14. Nicolae Anca-Iuliana, 2018. "Autoregressive Evolutions For Macroeconomic Indicators Do Confirm Chaos Theories In United States," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 4, pages 29-45, August.
  15. Grossman, Gene M & Levinsohn, James A, 1989. "Import Competition and the Stock Market Return to Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1065-1087, December.
  16. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael, 2013. "Housing prices and the business cycle: An empirical application to Hong Kong," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 62-76.
  17. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 857-880.
  18. Kozicki, Sharon, 1999. "Multivariate detrending under common trend restrictions: Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 997-1028, June.
  19. Everaert, Gerdie & Heylen, Freddy, 2001. "Public capital and productivity growth: evidence for Belgium, 1953-1996," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 97-116, January.
  20. Steven Cook & Alan Speight, 2006. "International Business Cycle Asymmetry and Time Irreversible Nonlinearities," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(10), pages 1051-1065.
  21. Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S & Siklos, Pierre L, 1993. "On the (Mis)Specification of Seasonality and Its Consequences: An Empirical Investigation with U.S. Data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 747-760.
  22. McCulloch, J. Huston, 2016. "Moment Ratio estimation of autoregressive/unit root parameters and autocorrelation-consistent standard errors," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 712-733.
  23. Nelson, Charles R., 2008. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition in retrospect and prospect," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 202-206, October.
  24. David Cobham & Peter Macmillan & David Mcmillan, 2004. "The inflation/output variability trade-off: further evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 347-350.
  25. Michelacci, Claudio & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2000. "(Fractional) beta convergence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-153, February.
  26. Biolsi, Christopher, 2017. "Nonlinear effects of fiscal policy over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 54-87.
  27. Viv B. Hall & Peter Thomson, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis:evidence from New Zealand's small open economy," CAMA Working Papers 2022-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  28. Kufenko, Vadim, 2016. "Spurious periodicities in cliometric series: Simultaneous testing," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 48/2016, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.
  29. Murray, Christian J. & Nelson, Charles R., 2000. "The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 79-95, August.
  30. Aadland, David, 2005. "Detrending time-aggregated data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 287-293, December.
  31. Noriega Antonio E. & Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel, 2011. "A Simple Test for Spurious Regressions," Working Papers 2011-05, Banco de México.
  32. Kristian Jönsson, 2020. "Cyclical Dynamics and Trend/Cycle Definitions: Comparing the HP and Hamilton Filters," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(2), pages 151-162, November.
  33. repec:zbw:bofism:2006_035 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. Sainte Fare Garnot, Vivien & Groth, Andreas & Ghil, Michael, 2018. "Coupled Climate-Economic Modes in the Sahel's Interannual Variability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 111-123.
  35. Zhiming LONG & Rémy HERRERA, 2020. "Spurious OLS Estimators of Detrending Method by Adding a Linear Trend in Difference-Stationary Processes—A Mathematical Proof and Its Verification by Simulation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-19, November.
  36. Timothy Cogley, 1997. "Evaluating non-structural measures of the business cycle," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-21.
  37. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Closed Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  38. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1986. "Do we reject too often? : Small sample properties of tests of rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-145.
  39. Kenneth Kasa, 1998. "Borrowing constraints and asset market dynamics: evidence from the Pacific Basin," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 17-28.
  40. Cribari-Neto, Francisco, 1993. "Unit roots, random walks and the sources of business cycles: a survey," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 47(3), July.
  41. Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez, 2008. "Hechos Estilizados de la Economía Colombiana:Fundamentos Empíricos para la Construcción y Evaluación de un Modelo DSGE," Borradores de Economia 4602, Banco de la Republica.
  42. Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002. "Ongoing changes in the business cycle - evidence and causes," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 20 edited by Morten Balling, May.
  43. Ambler, Steve, 1989. "La stationnarité en économétrie et en macroéconomique : un guide pour les non initiés," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 65(4), pages 590-609, décembre.
  44. Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, "undated". "The Sources and Nature of Long-Term Memory in the Business Cycle," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 5-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  45. Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hopp�, "undated". "Economic Growth and Business Cycles: A Critical Comment on Detrending Time Series (Revised Version)," IEW - Working Papers 054, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  46. Andreas Groth & Patrice Dumas & Michael Ghil & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2015. "Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic Economy," Post-Print hal-01678074, HAL.
  47. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Measuring macroeconomic volatility - Applications to export revenue data, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.
  48. Ahmet E. Kocagil & Kudret Topyan, 1997. "An empirical note on demand for speculation and futures risk premium: A Kalman Filter application," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), pages 77-93.
  49. John T. Cuddington & Rodney Ludema & Shamila A Jayasuriya, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 140, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Cuddington, John T. & Ludema, Rodney & Jayasuriya, Shamila A, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers 15857, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
  50. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  51. Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil, 2017. "Synchronization of world economic activity," Post-Print hal-01701086, HAL.
  52. Jonathan P. Goldstein, 1996. "The Empirical Relevance of the Cyclical Profit Squeeze: A Reassertion," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 28(4), pages 55-92, December.
  53. Chan Il Park, 1998. "Transactions Demand for Money and the Inverse Relation Between Inflation and Output: the Case of Korean Economy," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 39-51.
  54. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris & Joon Y. Park, 1988. "Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Maintained Trend," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 880, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  55. Tinsley, P A & Krieger, Reva, 1997. "Asymmetric Adjustments of Price and Output," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 631-652, July.
  56. Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis: evidence from New Zealand’s small open economy," Working Paper Series 9473, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  57. Lucrezia Reichlin, 1989. "Fluctuations et croissance en Europe : une analyse empirique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 26(1), pages 71-93.
  58. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2006. "Money and Swedish Inflation Reconsidered," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 270/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  59. Frederic Dufourt, 2000. "Dynamic Properties of the New Neoclassical Synthesis Model of Business Cycle," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0389, Econometric Society.
  60. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1984. "Pitfalls in the Use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(1), pages 73-82, January.
  61. João Valle e Azevedo, 2002. "Business Cycles: Cyclical Comovement Within the European Union in the Period 1960-1999. A Frequency Domain Approach," Working Papers w200205, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  62. Iolanda Lo Cascio & Stephen Pollock, 2007. "Comparative Economic Cycles," Working Papers 599, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  63. Yinghao LUO, 2016. "Nonlinear Trend and Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 490-497, September.
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  66. Kocagil, Ahmet E. & Topyan, Kudret, 1997. "An empirical note on demand for speculation and futures risk premium: A Kalman Filter application," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 77-93.
  67. Dufourt, 2005. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Models and the Beveridge-Nelson Facts," Macroeconomics 0501003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  68. Freitas, Paulo S.A. & Rodrigues, Antonio J.L., 2006. "Model combination in neural-based forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 173(3), pages 801-814, September.
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  71. Pollock D. S. G., 2013. "Cycles, Syllogisms and Semantics: Examining the Idea of Spurious Cycles," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 81-102, September.
  72. Rajiv Kalra & Kam C. Chan, 1994. "Censored Sample Bias, Macroeconomic Factors, and Time on Market of Residential Housing," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(2), pages 253-262.
  73. Lyubomir Ivanov, 2005. "Is "The ideal filter" really Ideal: The usage of Frequency Filtering and Spurious Cycles," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 3(1), pages 79-96.
  74. Heejoon Kang, 2004. "Inappropriate Detrending and Spurious Cointegration," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 624, Econometric Society.
  75. Tsay, Wen-Jen & Chung, Ching-Fan, 2000. "The spurious regression of fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 155-182, May.
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  78. Dagum, Estela Bee & Giannerini, Simone, 2006. "A critical investigation on detrending procedures for non-linear processes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 175-191, March.
  79. Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 1996-2, Department of Finance Canada.
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  81. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2014. "Output-gaps in the PIIGS Economies: An Ingredient of a Greek Tragedy," GEMF Working Papers 2014-06, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
  82. Vivien Sainte Fare Garnot & Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil, 2018. "Coupled Climate-Economic Modes in the Sahel's Interannual Variability," Post-Print hal-01855370, HAL.
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  85. Choi, Chi-Young & Hu, Ling & Ogaki, Masao, 2008. "Robust estimation for structural spurious regressions and a Hausman-type cointegration test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 327-351, January.
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