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Wheat price volatility regimes over 140 years: An analysis of daily price ranges

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  • Haase, Marco
  • Zimmermann, Heinz
  • Huss, Matthias

Abstract

We analyze Chicago based daily wheat price volatility over more than 140 years using a novel data set of daily high and low futures prices starting in 1877. We identify five long-run regimes and find that volatility shifts between regimes are statistically more pronounced than fluctuations within regimes, even when conditioning on economic states. Historical volatility estimates derived from average commodity price data, a common practice in empirical studies, exhibit a regime-dependent upward bias between 0% and 22%. The magnitude of the bias and the importance of regimes potentially explain contradictory findings on volatility patterns in earlier studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Haase, Marco & Zimmermann, Heinz & Huss, Matthias, 2023. "Wheat price volatility regimes over 140 years: An analysis of daily price ranges," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:31:y:2023:i:c:s2405851323000363
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2023.100346
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity futures volatility; Wheat futures; Historical price analysis; Structural volatility breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • N21 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N51 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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