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Integrated Regressors and Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis

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  • James H. Stock
  • Kenneth D. West

Abstract

We use recent research on estimation and testing in the presence of unit roots to argue that Hall's (1978) t and F tests of whether consumption is predicted by lagged income, or by lags of consumption beyond the first, are asymptotically valid. A Monte Carlo experiment suggests that the asymptotic t and F distributions provide a good approximation to the actual finite sample distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • James H. Stock & Kenneth D. West, 1987. "Integrated Regressors and Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 2359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2359
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
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    5. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-1273, November.
    6. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
    7. Charles R. Nelson, 1985. "A Reappraisal of Recent Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 1687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    9. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    10. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Asymptotic Normality, When Regressors Have a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1397-1417, November.
    11. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    12. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1985. "Trends, random walks, and tests of the permanent income hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 165-174, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bardsen, Gunnar, 1990. "Dynamic Modelling And The Demand For Narrow Money In Norway," Economic Research Papers 268479, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    2. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption: Saving decisions: Testing the finite horizon model," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1995_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hannes Kaadu & Lenno Uuskula, 2004. "Liquidity Constrains and Ricardian Equivalence in Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2004-7, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2004.
    6. Brunila, Anne, 1996. "Fiscal policy and private consumption : Saving decisions : Evidence from Finland," Research Discussion Papers 28/1996, Bank of Finland.
    7. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption : Saving decisions : Testing the finite horizon model," Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    8. Sweeney, Richard J., 2007. "Fed intervention, dollar appreciation, and systematic risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 167-192, March.
    9. Gilbert Colletaz & Jean-Pierre Gourlaouen, 1990. "Coïntégration et structure par terme des taux d'intérêt," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 41(4), pages 687-712.
    10. Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1994. "Inference in Time Series Regression When the Order of Integration of a Regressor is Unknown," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 672-700, August.
    11. Takala, Kari, 1995. "Permanent income hypothesis and saving in Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/1995, Bank of Finland.
    12. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1998. "Real Interest Rates, Liquidity Constraints and Financial Deregulation: Private Consumption Behavior in the U.K," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 221-242, April.
    13. Shabtai Donnenfeld & Alfred A. Haug, 2008. "Currency invoicing of US imports," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 184-198.
    14. Brunila, Anne, 1996. "Fiscal policy and private consumption: Saving decisions: Evidence from Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 28/1996, Bank of Finland.
    15. Yu, Ge, 2005. "Excess sensitivity of consumption using micro data in the UK," MPRA Paper 548, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
    16. Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1991. "Consommation privée et endettement public en Italie et en Belgique : existe-t-il une relation stable ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 79-121.
    17. Takala, Kari, 1995. "Permanent income hypothesis and saving in Finland," Research Discussion Papers 15/1995, Bank of Finland.
    18. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1997_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Kenneth D. West, 1993. "Inventory Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. A. J. Aulton & C. T. Ennew & A. J. Rayner, 1997. "Efficiency Tests Of Futures Markets For Uk Agricultural Commodities," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1‐3), pages 408-424, January.
    21. Laurence Bloch & Françoise Maurel, 1991. "Consommation-revenu permanent : un regard d'économètre," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 99(3), pages 113-144.
    22. Wallace, Myles S & Choudhry, Taufiq, 1995. "The gold standard: Perfectly integrated world markets or slow adjustment of prices and interest rates?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 349-371, June.
    23. Alan Viard, 1997. "How forecastable is consumption growth? New evidence on the Hall random walk hypothesis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(11), pages 1435-1446.
    24. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1996_028 is not listed on IDEAS

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