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Climate anomalies and international migration: A disaggregated analysis for West Africa

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  • Martinez Flores, Fernanda
  • Milusheva, Sveta
  • Reichert, Arndt R.

Abstract

Migration is one of the channels West African populations can use to adjust to the negative impacts of climate change. Using novel geo-referenced and high-frequency data, this study investigates the extent to which soil moisture anomalies drive international migration decisions within the region and toward Europe. The findings show that drier soil conditions decrease (rather than increase) the probability to migrate. A standard deviation decrease in soil moisture leads to a 2 percentage point drop in the probability to migrate, equivalent to a 25 percent decrease in the number of migrants. This effect is concentrated during the crop-growing season, and likely driven by financial constraints. The effect is only seen for areas that are in the middle of the income distribution, with no impact on the poorest or richest areas of a country, suggesting that the former were constrained to start and the latter can address those financial constraints.

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  • Martinez Flores, Fernanda & Milusheva, Sveta & Reichert, Arndt R., 2021. "Climate anomalies and international migration: A disaggregated analysis for West Africa," Ruhr Economic Papers 910, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:910
    DOI: 10.4419/96973054
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    1. Dardati, Evangelina & Laurent, Thibault & Margaretic, Paula & Thomas-Agnan, Christine, 2024. "Climate, Conflict and International Migration," TSE Working Papers 24-1575, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    West Africa; climate change; migration; agriculture;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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