IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/nhheco/2014_031.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Variability and International Migration: an empirical analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Coniglio, Nicola D.

    (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Pesce, Giovanni

    (University of Bari "Aldo Moro")

Abstract

Is international migration an adaptation strategy to sudden or gradual climatic shocks? In this paper we investigate the direct and the indirect role of climatic shocks in developing countries as a determinant of out-migration flows toward rich OECD countries in the period 1990-2001. Contrarily to the bulk of existing studies we use a macro approach and explicitly consider the heterogeneity of climatic shocks (type, size, sign of shocks and seasonal effects). Our results show that the occurrence of adverse climatic events in origin countries has significative direct and indirect effects on out-migration from poor to rich countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Coniglio, Nicola D. & Pesce, Giovanni, 2014. "Climate Variability and International Migration: an empirical analysis," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 31/2014, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2014_031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://brage.bibsys.no/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11250/224078/1/discussionpaper3114.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McFadden, Daniel L., 1984. "Econometric analysis of qualitative response models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1395-1457, Elsevier.
    2. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 357-371, November.
    3. le Blanc, David & Perez, Romain, 2008. "The relationship between rainfall and human density and its implications for future water stress in Sub-Saharan Africa," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 319-336, June.
    4. Kunčič, Aljaž, 2014. "Institutional quality dataset," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 135-161, March.
    5. Kuncic, Aljaz, 2012. "Institutional quality database," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 457, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Caglar Ozden & Christopher R. Parsons & Maurice Schiff & Terrie L. Walmsley, 2011. "Where on Earth is Everybody? The Evolution of Global Bilateral Migration 1960-2000," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 12-56, May.
    7. Paul Cheshire & Stefano Magrini, 2006. "Population growth in European cities: Weather matters - but only nationally," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 23-37.
    8. Yang Dean, 2008. "Coping with Disaster: The Impact of Hurricanes on International Financial Flows, 1970-2002," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-45, June.
    9. John Kennan & James R. Walker, 2011. "The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 211-251, January.
    10. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2016. "A Practitioners’ Guide to Gravity Models of International Migration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 496-512, April.
    11. repec:kap:iaecre:v:11:y:2005:i:3:p:267-274 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. HwaJung Choi, 2007. "Are Remittances Insurance? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in the Philippines," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(2), pages 219-248, May.
    13. Amelie F. Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann (ed.), 2013. "International Handbook on the Economics of Migration," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4026.
    14. Macartan Humphreys, 2005. "Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(4), pages 508-537, August.
    15. Halliday, Timothy, 2006. "Migration, Risk, and Liquidity Constraints in El Salvador," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 893-925, July.
    16. Nicola D. Coniglio & Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Laura Serlenga, 2009. "Intentions to Return of Clandestine Migrants: The Perverse Effect of Illegality on Skills," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 641-657, November.
    17. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2009. "Does Aid Mitigate External Shocks?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 429-451, August.
    18. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    19. Richard Cebula, 2005. "Internal Migration Determinants: Recent Evidence," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(3), pages 267-274, August.
    20. Rafael Reuveny & Will H. Moore, 2009. "Does Environmental Degradation Influence Migration? Emigration to Developed Countries in the Late 1980s and 1990s," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 90(3), pages 461-479, September.
    21. repec:bla:rdevec:v:13:y:2009:i:s1:p:429-451 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Kaivan Munshi, 2003. "Networks in the Modern Economy: Mexican Migrants in the U. S. Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 549-599.
    23. Etienne Piguet, 2010. "Linking climate change, environmental degradation, and migration: a methodological overview," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(4), pages 517-524, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mbaye, Linguere Mously & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2016. "Natural Disasters and Human Mobility," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 10(1), pages 37-56, November.
    2. Amelia Aburn & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2017. "Gone with the Wind: International Migration," Working Papers 1708, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2017.
    3. Jasmin Katrin Gröschl, 2013. "Gravity Model Applications and Macroeconomic Perspectives," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 48.
    4. Michel Beine & Christopher Parsons, 2015. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 723-767, April.
    5. Michel Beine & Christopher R Parsons, 2017. "Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration: Redux," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 386-402.
    6. Luca Marchiori & Jean-François Maystadt & Ingmar Schumacher, 2017. "Is Environmentally-induced Income Variability a Driver of Human Migration?," Working Papers 2017-010, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    7. Thomas Steinwachs, 2019. "Geography Matters: Spatial Dimensions of Trade, Migration and Growth," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 81.
    8. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2016. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Post-Print halshs-00825807, HAL.
    9. Bogatzki, Tamara, 2021. "Heterogeneity in migration network effects across cultures," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Migration, Integration, Transnationalization SP VI 2021-102, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    10. Joan Llull, 2016. "Understanding international migration: evidence from a new dataset of bilateral stocks (1960–2000)," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 221-255, June.
    11. repec:ipg:wpaper:17 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Giulia Bettin & Alberto Zazzaro, 2018. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Remittances to Low- and Middle-Income Countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 481-500, March.
    13. Castells-Quintana, David & Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & McDermott, Thomas K.J., 2018. "Adaptation to climate change: A review through a development economics lens," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 183-196.
    14. Vicente Royuela, 2015. "The role of urbanisation on international migrations: a case study of EU and ENP countries," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(4), pages 469-490, July.
    15. Klaus Nowotny, 2015. "Institutions and the Location Decisions of Highly Skilled Migrants to Europe. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 78," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 57885.
    16. Maya Moore & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2023. "Climatic factors as drivers of migration: a review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 2955-2975, April.
    17. Ariel R. Belasen & Solomon W. Polachek, 2013. "Natural disasters and migration," Chapters, in: Amelie F. Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Migration, chapter 17, pages 309-330, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Ingrid Dallmann & Katrin Millock, 2013. "Climate Variability and Internal Migration: A Test on Indian Inter-State Migration," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13045r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Mar 2016.
    19. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-017 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Luca Marchiori & Jean Francois Maystadt & Ingmar Schumacher, 2013. "Is environmentally," Working Papers 2013-17, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    21. Vicente Ruiz, 2017. "Do climatic events influence internal migration? Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2017.19, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    22. Johannes Buggle & Thierry Mayer & Seyhun Orcan Sakalli & Mathias Thoenig, 2023. "The Refugee’s Dilemma: Evidence from Jewish Migration out of Nazi Germany," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1273-1345.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate shocks; international migration.;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2014_031. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Karen Reed-Larsen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sonhhno.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.