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Refugees’ and Irregular Migrants’ Self-selection into Europe

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  • Aksoy, Cevat Giray

Abstract

We provide the first large-scale evidence on self-selection of refugees and irregular migrants who arrived in Europe in 2015 or 2016. Our analysis uses unique datasets from the International Organization for Migration and Gallup World Polls. We find that refugees are positively self-selected with respect to human capital, as are female irregular migrants. Male irregular migrants are negatively self-selected. These patterns hold whether analyzing individually stated main reason to emigrate, country-level conflict intensity, or sub-regional conflict intensity. Several additional analyses show that our results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variable bias or liquidity constraints. We offer a theoretical framework to explain these patterns, by extending the Roy-Borjas model to include risks related to staying in an unsafe country of origin, risks related to migration, and gender specific returns to human capital.

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  • Aksoy, Cevat Giray, 2021. "Refugees’ and Irregular Migrants’ Self-selection into Europe," SocArXiv bf7sy, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:bf7sy
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/bf7sy
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    Cited by:

    1. Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Poutvaara, Panu & Schikora, Felicitas, 2023. "First time around: Local conditions and multi-dimensional integration of refugees," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Erminia Florio, 2023. "Information Campaigns and Migration Perceptions," CEIS Research Paper 564, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 31 Jul 2023.
    3. Panu Poutvaara, 2021. "Population Aging and Migration," CESifo Working Paper Series 9105, CESifo.
    4. Di Iasio, Valentina & Wahba, Jackline, 2024. "The Determinants of Refugees’ Destinations: Where do refugees locate within the EU?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    5. Platt, Lucinda & Polavieja, Javier & Radl, Jonas, 2022. "Which Integration Policies Work? The Heterogeneous Impact of National Institutions on Immigrants’ Labor Market Attainment in Europe," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 56(2), pages 344-375.
    6. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Mesnard, Alice & Perrault, Tiffanie, 2023. "Temporary foreign work permits: Honing the tools to defeat human smuggling," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    7. Sascha O. Becker, 2022. "Forced displacement in history: Some recent research," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(1), pages 2-25, March.
    8. Michael A Clemens, 2022. "The economic and fiscal effects on the United States from reduced numbers of refugees and asylum seekers," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(3), pages 449-486.
    9. Fasani, Francesco & Frattini, Tommaso & Pirot, Maxime, 2023. "From Refugees to Citizens: Labor Market Returns to Naturalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 18675, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Tiange Qi & Yuning Gao & Yongjian Huang, 2024. "A Lucas island model to analyse labour movement choice between cities based on personal characteristics," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Brücker, Herbert & Deuster, Christoph & Fendel, Tanja & Jaschke, Philipp & Keita, Sekou & Freitas Monteiro, Teresa, 2021. "Nach der Machtübernahme der Taliban in Afghanistan: Erfahrungen aus der Vergangenheit und erste Einschätzungen der Folgen für Migration und Integration," IAB-Forschungsbericht 202109, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    12. Ajzenman, Nicolás & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Guriev, Sergei, 2022. "Exposure to transit migration: Public attitudes and entrepreneurship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    13. Fasani, Francesco & Frattini, Tommaso & Pirot, Maxime, 2023. "From Refugees to Citizens: Labor Market Returns to Naturalization," IZA Discussion Papers 16651, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Bertoli, Simone & Brücker, Herbert & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2022. "Do applications respond to changes in asylum policies in European countries?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    15. Guichard, Lucas & Machado, Joël, 2024. "The Externalities of Immigration Policies on Migration Flows: The Case of an Asylum Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 16935, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Seonho Shin, 2022. "To work or not? Wages or subsidies?: Copula-based evidence of subsidized refugees’ negative selection into employment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 2209-2252, October.
    17. Platt, Lucinda & Polavieja, Javier & Radl, Jonas, 2022. "Which integration policies work? The heterogeneous impact of national institutions on immigrants’ labor market attainment in Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110955, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Cole, Matthew A. & Jabbour, Liza & Ozgen, Ceren & Yumoto, Hiromi, 2024. "Refugees' Economic Integration and Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 16828, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Hatton, Timothy J., 2023. "Asylum recognition rates in Europe: Policies and performance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    20. Jordi Ripollés & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2021. "African Asylum Seekers in Europe: The Interplay between Foreign Aid and Governance in Origin Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 829-865, November.
    21. Amrita Kulka & Till Nikolka & Panu Poutvaara & Silke Uebelmesser, 2023. "International Applicability of Education and Migration Aspirations," CESifo Working Paper Series 10395, CESifo.
    22. Fuchs, Andreas & Gröger, André & Heidland, Tobias & Wellner, Lukas, 2023. "The effect of foreign aid on migration: Global micro evidence from world bank projects," Kiel Working Papers 2257, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    23. Nicolás Ajzenman & Cevat Giray Aksoy & Sergei Guriev, 2020. "Exposure to Transit Migration, Public Attitudes and Entrepreneurship," Department of Economics Working Papers wp_gob_2020_02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    24. Ilpo Kauppinen & Panu Poutvaara, 2023. "Decomposing Migrant Self-Selection: Education, Occupation, and Unobserved Abilities," CESifo Working Paper Series 10334, CESifo.
    25. Auer, Daniel & Götz, Lilia, 2021. "Refugee migration, labor demand, and local employment," GLO Discussion Paper Series 989, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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