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Climate Variability and International Migration: The Importance of the Agricultural Linkage

Author

Listed:
  • Ruohong Cai

    (Princeton University)

  • Shuaizhang Feng

    (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, , Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Mariola Pytliková

    (VSB-Technical University Ostrava, KORA, The Danish Institute of Local Governmental Research)

  • Michael Oppenheimer

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

While there is considerable interest in understanding the climate-migration relationship, particularly in the context of concerns about global climatic change, little is known about underlying mechanisms. We analyze a unique and extensive set of panel data characterizing annual bilateral international migration flows from 163 origin countries to 42 OECD destination countries covering the last three decades. We find a positive and statistically significant relationship between temperature and international outmigration only in the most agriculture-dependent countries, consistent with the widely-documented adverse impact of temperature on agricultural productivity. In addition, migration flows to current major destinations are especially temperature-sensitive. Policies to address issues related to climate-induced international migration would be more effective if focused on the agriculture-dependent countries and especially people in those countries whose livelihoods depend on agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruohong Cai & Shuaizhang Feng & Mariola Pytliková & Michael Oppenheimer, 2014. "Climate Variability and International Migration: The Importance of the Agricultural Linkage," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1418, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:1418
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International migration; Climate variability; Agricultural productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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