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Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Anouch Missirian

    (Columbia University [New York], SIPA - Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs)

  • Wolfram Schlenker

    (NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research, SIPA - Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs, The Earth Institute, Columbia University, USA)

Abstract

Warming stresses developing countries Weather-induced conflicts in developing countries spill over to developed countries through asylum applications. One approach to estimating the future impacts of climate change is to look at the effects of weather fluctuations. These transient shocks can be interpreted analytically as randomly distributed treatments applied to countries around the world. Missirian and Schlenker analyzed the relation between these localized shocks to agriculture and applications by that country's migrants for asylum in the European Union. When temperatures in the source country deviated from a moderate optimum around 20°C that is best for agriculture, asylum applications increased. Thus, the net forecast is for asylum applications to increase as global temperatures rise. Science , this issue p. 1610

Suggested Citation

  • Anouch Missirian & Wolfram Schlenker, 2017. "Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations," Post-Print hal-04136700, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04136700
    DOI: 10.1126/science.aao0432
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Emily C. Nabong & Aaron Opdyke & Jeffrey P. Walters, 2022. "Identifying leverage points in climate change migration systems through expert mental models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(3), pages 1-23, December.
    2. Elías Albagli & Pablo García Silva & Gonzalo García-Trujillo & María Antonia Yung, 2024. "Through Drought and Flood: the past, present and future of Climate Migration," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 1019, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Hallegatte, Stephane & Trinh, Trong-Anh, 2023. "Does global warming worsen poverty and inequality? An updated review," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120701, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Angela Köppl & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2024. "Policy Brief: Budgetäre Kosten und Risiken durch klimapolitisches Nichthandeln und Klimarisiken," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 70821, January.
    5. Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Cong Nguyen, Minh & Trinh, Trong-Anh, 2023. "Does hotter temperature increase poverty and inequality? Global evidence from subnational data analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120156, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Cattaneo, Cristina & Foreman, Timothy, 2023. "Climate change, international migration, and interstate conflicts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    7. Els BEKEART & Ilse RUYSSEN & Sara SALOMONE, 2021. "Domestic and International Migration Intentions in Response to Environmental Stress: A Global Cross-country Analysis," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 383-436, September.
    8. Martínez Flores, Fernanda & Milusheva, Sveta & Reichert, Arndt R. & Reitmann, Ann-Kristin, 2024. "Climate anomalies and international migration: A disaggregated analysis for West Africa," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Martina Angela Caretta & Valeria Fanghella & Pam Rittelmeyer & Jaishri Srinivasan & Prajjwal K. Panday & Jagadish Parajuli & Ritu Priya & E. B. Uday Bhaskar Reddy & Cydney Kate Seigerman & Aditi Mukhe, 2023. "Migration as adaptation to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes? A meta-review of existing evidence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-22, August.
    10. Rudik, Ivan & Lyn, Gary & Tan, Weiliang & Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel, 2022. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change in Dynamic Spatial Equilibrium," Conference papers 333486, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Mohamad Abou Houran & Abd Alwahed Dagestani, 2023. "Renewable Rush in Syria Faces Economic Crisis," Financial Economics Letters, Anser Press, vol. 2(2), pages 1-5, October.
    12. Mélanie Gittard, 2024. "Droughts, Migration and Population in Kenya," CIRED Working Papers halshs-04685409, HAL.
    13. Chrispin Kamuikeni & Hisahiro Naito, 2024. "The Effect of Climate Change on Internal Migration: Evidence from Micro Census Data of 16 Sub-Saharan African Countries," Tsukuba Economics Working Papers 2024-003, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba.
    14. Marguerite Obolensky & Marco Tabellini & Charles Taylor, 2024. "Homeward Bound: How Migrants Seek Out Familiar Climates," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2401, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    15. Bijnens, Gert & Anyfantaki, Sofia & Colciago, Andrea & De Mulder, Jan & Falck, Elisabeth & Labhard, Vincent & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma & Meriküll, Jaanika & Parker, Miles & Röhe, Oke & Schroth, Joachim & , 2024. "The impact of climate change and policies on productivity," Occasional Paper Series 340, European Central Bank.
    16. Krause, Jan S. & Brandt, Gerrit & Schmidt, Ulrich & Schunk, Daniel, 2023. "Don’t sweat it: Ambient temperature does not affect social behavior and perception," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    17. Dardati, Evangelina & Laurent, Thibault & Margaretic, Paula & Thomas-Agnan, Christine, 2024. "Climate, Conflict and International Migration," TSE Working Papers 24-1575, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    18. Obolensky, Marguerite & Tabellini, Marco & Taylor, Charles A., 2024. "Homeward Bound: How Migrants Seek Out Familiar Climates," IZA Discussion Papers 16710, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Doering-White, John & Díaz de León, Alejandra & Hernández Tapia, Arisbeth & Delgado Mejía, Luisa & Castro, Sabina & Roy, Kendall & Cruz, Gabriella Q. & Hudock-Jeffrey, Sarah, 2024. "Climate-health risk (In)visibility in the context of everyday humanitarian practice," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 354(C).
    20. Shuai Zhou & Guangqing Chi, 2024. "How do environmental stressors influence migration? A meta-regression analysis of environmental migration literature," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 50(2), pages 41-100.
    21. Erik Christopher Simmons & Matthew Sanders, 2022. "Building sustainable communities for sustainable development: An evidence‐based behavior change intervention to reduce plastic waste and destructive fishing in Southeast Asia," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 1018-1029, October.
    22. Maya Moore & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2023. "Climatic factors as drivers of migration: a review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 2955-2975, April.
    23. Wolfram Schlenker & Charles A Taylor, 2019. "Market Expectations About Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 25554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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