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Temperature and Human Capital in the Short- and Long-Run

Author

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  • Joshua S. Graff Zivin
  • Solomon M. Hsiang
  • Matthew J. Neidell

Abstract

We provide the first estimates of the potential impact of climate change on human capital, focusing on the impacts from both short-run weather and long-run climate. Exploiting the longitudinal structure of the NLSY79 and random fluctuations in weather across interviews, we identify the effect of temperature in models with child-specific fixed effects. We find that short-run changes in temperature lead to statistically significant decreases in cognitive performance on math (but not reading) beyond 26C (78.8F). In contrast, our long-run analysis, which relies upon long-difference and rich cross-sectional models, reveals no statistically significant relationship between climate and human capital. This finding is consistent with the notion that adaptation, particularly compensatory behavior, plays a significant role in limiting the long run impacts from short run weather shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua S. Graff Zivin & Solomon M. Hsiang & Matthew J. Neidell, 2015. "Temperature and Human Capital in the Short- and Long-Run," NBER Working Papers 21157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21157
    Note: CH EEE EH LS PE
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • I0 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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