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The Reliability of Quarterly National Accounts in Seven Major Countries: A User's Perspective

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  • Robert York
  • Paul Atkinson

Abstract

National accounts data provide the most comprehensive overview available of developments in national economies. They are of great interest to a wide range of users of economic information. These users, which include governments formulating budgetary policies, central banks making monetary policy decisions, businesses considering investment decisions and financial institutions making judgements concerning portfolio allocation, have needs which may differ in various respects. However, since their interest generally stems from the likelihood that they will make better decisions if they are well informed about economic developments, they all have a strong interest in the accuracy of national accounts statistics. This paper examines the reliability of preliminary quarterly national accounts statistics. In particular, it considers the longer-term behaviour of the provisional estimates to GDP growth and its main expenditure components through an examination of the revisions to those ... Les données des comptes nationaux fournissent le résumé statistique disponible le plus complet sur les évolutions des économies nationales. Elles sont d’un grand intérêt pour une large gamme d’utilisateurs d’informations économiques. Ces utilisateurs, qu’ils soient des gouvernements formulant des politiques budgétaires, des banques centrales décidant des politiques monétaires, des entreprises étudiant les choix d’investissement ou des institutions financières prenant des décisions relatives à des choix de portefeuille, ont des besoins qui peuvent différer de diverses manières. Néanmoins, puisque leur intérêt provient généralement de la probabilité qu’ils pourront prendre de meilleures décisions s’ils sont bien informés au sujet des développements économiques, ils s’intéressent tous à l’exactitude des statistiques des comptes nationaux. Ce document examine la fiabilité des statistiques préliminaires des comptes nationaux trimestriels. En particulier, il étudie le comportement à ...

Suggested Citation

  • Robert York & Paul Atkinson, 1997. "The Reliability of Quarterly National Accounts in Seven Major Countries: A User's Perspective," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 171, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:171-en
    DOI: 10.1787/184371668631
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    Cited by:

    1. Leviäkangas, Pekka & Molarius, Riitta, 2020. "Open government data policy and value added - Evidence on transport safety agency case," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Massimo Florio, 2001. "On Cross-country Comparability of Government Statistics: Public expenditure trends in OECD National Accounts," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 181-198.
    3. Leviäkangas, Pekka & Mok Paik, Seong & Moon, Sungkon, 2017. "Keeping up with the pace of digitization: The case of the Australian construction industry," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 33-43.
    4. Olivier Roodenburg, 2004. "On the predictability of GDP data revisions in the Netherlands," DNB Working Papers 004, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu, 2023. "Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments," Papers 2309.11690, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    6. Verónica Cañal-Fernández, 2012. "Accuracy and reliability of Spanish regional accounts (CRE-95)," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1299-1320, December.
    7. Cabrer-Borrás, Bernanrdi & Serrano, Guadalupe & Pavía, José M., 2017. "Evaluación del sesgo en las estimaciones de Contabilidad Nacional Trimestral: Estudio de las añadas en España /Assessing Quarterly Spanish National Accounts Estimates. A Study of the vintages," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 35, pages 271-298, Mayo.
    8. J. Steven Landefeld & Eugene P. Seskin & Barbara M. Fraumeni, 2008. "Taking the Pulse of the Economy: Measuring GDP," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 193-216, Spring.
    9. Döhrn, Roland, 2020. "Are German national accounts informational efficient?," Ruhr Economic Papers 880, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Christopher Bajada, 2002. "The Effects of Inflation and the Business Cycle on Revisions of Macroeconomic Data," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 35(3), pages 276-286, September.

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