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Revisionen der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen und ihre Auswirkungen auf Prognosen
[Revisions of national accounts data and their impact on forecasts]

Author

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  • Roland Döhrn

    (RWI Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Die Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen (VGR) sind die wichtigste Grundlage für makroökonomische Analysen. Für Deutschland werden diese vom Statistischen Bundesamt vierteljährlich veröffentlicht. Die erste Veröffentlichung basiert noch auf unvollständigen Daten, so dass die Angaben in der Folgezeit mehrfach revidiert werden, bis etwa dreieinhalb Jahre nach Ende eines Jahres endgültige Werte vorliegen. Überlagert werden diese laufenden Revisionen von sogenannten Generalrevisionen, mit denen systematische Änderungen in den VGR umgesetzt werden. Beobachten lassen sich nur die Revisionen insgesamt, während mit Blick auf die Arbeit der statistischen Ämter und den Gesetzgeber eher das Ausmaß der laufenden Revisionen von Interesse ist. Der vorliegende Beitrag isoliert mit Hilfe eines einfachen Ansatzes die laufenden Revisionen und untersucht deren Ausmaß sowie, ob sie statistische Regelmäßigkeiten aufweisen. Dabei lassen sich für eine Reihe preisbereinigter Verwendungsaggregate der VGR wie auch für die Erwerbstätigkeit Systematiken wie Verzerrung, Autokorrelation der Revisionen und Korrelation zwischen der Revision und der Veränderungsrate der betreffenden Variablen finden. Dies weist auf Möglichkeiten hin, durch bessere Datennutzung die datenbedingt notwendigen Revisionen der VGR zu verringern. Dies ist auch mit Blick auf die Genauigkeit von Prognosen wünschenswert, denn die Arbeit zeigt, dass die Treffsicherheit von im Herbst veröffentlichten Prognosen wesentlich durch Revisionen der Daten für das erste Halbjahr des betreffenden Jahres beeinflusst wird.

Suggested Citation

  • Roland Döhrn, 2019. "Revisionen der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen und ihre Auswirkungen auf Prognosen [Revisions of national accounts data and their impact on forecasts]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 13(2), pages 99-123, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:astaws:v:13:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11943-019-00251-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11943-019-00251-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Döhrn, Roland, 2020. "Are German national accounts informational efficient?," Ruhr Economic Papers 880, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Timo Schmid & Markus Zwick, 2019. "Vorwort der Herausgeber," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 13(2), pages 95-97, September.
    3. Döhrn, Roland, 2019. "Zur Aussagekraft der VGR der Länder - Revisionspraxis und Verbesserungsvorschläge," RWI Materialien 132, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.

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