Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Factor Models and Machine Learning: An Application to Japan
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002.
"Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2008. "How Useful Is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of U.S. Consumer Price Inflation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 511-522, June.
- Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2022.
"How is machine learning useful for macroeconomic forecasting?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 920-964, August.
- Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2019. "How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?," CIRANO Working Papers 2019s-22, CIRANO.
- Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & St'ephane Surprenant, 2020. "How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?," Papers 2008.12477, arXiv.org.
- Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stephane Surprenant, 2020. "How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?," Working Papers 20-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Aug 2020.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2009.
"Tests of Equal Predictive Ability With Real-Time Data,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 441-454.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Research Working Paper RWP 07-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Working Papers 2008-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Thomas R. Cook & Aaron Smalter Hall, 2017.
"Macroeconomic Indicator Forecasting with Deep Neural Networks,"
Research Working Paper
RWP 17-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Thomas Cook, 2019. "Macroeconomic Indicator Forecasting with Deep Neural Networks," 2019 Meeting Papers 402, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 481-493, June.
- Kim, Hyun Hak & Swanson, Norman R., 2014.
"Forecasting financial and macroeconomic variables using data reduction methods: New empirical evidence,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 352-367.
- Huyn Hak Kim & Norman R. Swanson, 2011. "Forecasting Financial and Macroeconomic Variables Using Data Reduction Methods: New Empirical Evidence," Departmental Working Papers 201119, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Kim, Hyun Hak & Swanson, Norman R., 2018. "Mining big data using parsimonious factor, machine learning, variable selection and shrinkage methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 339-354.
- Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2006.
"Are more data always better for factor analysis?,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 169-194, May.
- Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2003. "Are More Data Always Better for Factor Analysis?," NBER Working Papers 9829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Artis & Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated".
"Factor forecasts for the UK,"
Working Papers
203, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Michael ARTIS & Anindya BANERJEE & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2001. "Factor Forecasts for the UK," Economics Working Papers ECO2001/15, European University Institute.
- Artis, Michael & Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002. "Factor Forecasts for the UK," CEPR Discussion Papers 3119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Shin, Minchul, 2019.
"Machine learning for regularized survey forecast combination: Partially-egalitarian LASSO and its derivatives,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1679-1691.
- Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin, 2018. "Machine Learning for Regularized Survey Forecast Combination: Partially Egalitarian Lasso and its Derivatives," PIER Working Paper Archive 18-014, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 17 Aug 2018.
- Francis X. Diebold & Minchul Shin, 2018. "Machine Learning for Regularized Survey Forecast Combination: Partially-Egalitarian Lasso and its Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 24967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Variable selection, estimation and inference for multi-period forecasting problems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 173-187, September.
- Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2004. "Forecasting in dynamic factor models using Bayesian model averaging," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 550-565, December.
- Kitamura, Tomiyuki & Koike, Ryoji, 2003. "The Effectiveness of Forecasting Methods Using Multiple Information Variables," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(1), pages 105-143, February.
- Marcelo C. Medeiros & Gabriel F. R. Vasconcelos & Álvaro Veiga & Eduardo Zilberman, 2021.
"Forecasting Inflation in a Data-Rich Environment: The Benefits of Machine Learning Methods,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 98-119, January.
- Marcelo Madeiros & Gabriel Vasconcelos & Álvaro Veiga & Eduardo Zilberman, 2019. "Forecasting Inflation in a Data-Rich Environment: The Benefits of Machine Learning Methods," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 834, Central Bank of Chile.
- Yoshiki Nakajima & Naoya Sueishi, 2022. "Forecasting the Japanese macroeconomy using high-dimensional data," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 73(2), pages 299-324, April.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- komaki, Yasuyuki, 2023. "Why is the forecast error of quarterly GDP in Japan so large? – From an international comparison of quarterly GDP forecast situation," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
- Tingguo Zheng & Xinyue Fan & Wei Jin & Kuangnan Fang, 2024. "Forecasting CPI with multisource data: The value of media and internet information," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 702-753, April.
- S. Madhumitha & Anubhab Pattanayak & K.S. Kavi Kumar, 2021. "Crop Diversity and Resilience to Droughts: Evidence from Indian Agriculture," Working Papers 2021-206, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
- Ádám Csápai, 0000. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Machine Learning: A Case of Slovakia," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 14115967, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
- Dennis Kant & Andreas Pick & Jasper de Winter, 2022. "Nowcasting GDP using machine learning methods," Working Papers 754, DNB.
- Ilkin Huseynov & Nazrin Ramazanova & Hikmat Valirzayev, 2022. "Using National Payment System Data to Nowcast Economic Activity in Azerbaijan," IHEID Working Papers 23-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
- Gupta, Somya & Ghardallou, Wafa & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Sahu, Ganesh P., 2022. "Artificial intelligence adoption in the insurance industry: Evidence using the technology–organization–environment framework," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
- James T. E. Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2023.
"Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning,"
Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-32, November.
- James Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2022. "Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning," Staff Working Papers 22-10, Bank of Canada.
- James T. E. Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2022. "Macroeconomic Predictions using Payments Data and Machine Learning," Papers 2209.00948, arXiv.org.
- Kakuho Furukawa & Ryohei Hisano, 2022. "A Nowcasting Model of Exports Using Maritime Big Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-19, Bank of Japan.
- Khan, Faridoon & Muhammadullah, Sara & Sharif, Arshian & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2024. "The role of green energy stock market in forecasting China's crude oil market: An application of IIS approach and sparse regression models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
- Muhammad Anees Khan & Kumail Abbas & Mazliham Mohd Su’ud & Anas A. Salameh & Muhammad Mansoor Alam & Nida Aman & Mehreen Mehreen & Amin Jan & Nik Alif Amri Bin Nik Hashim & Roslizawati Che Aziz, 2022. "Application of Machine Learning Algorithms for Sustainable Business Management Based on Macro-Economic Data: Supervised Learning Techniques Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-14, August.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Maehashi, Kohei & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2020. "Macroeconomic forecasting using factor models and machine learning: an application to Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
- Kim, Hyun Hak & Swanson, Norman R., 2018. "Mining big data using parsimonious factor, machine learning, variable selection and shrinkage methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 339-354.
- Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2022.
"How is machine learning useful for macroeconomic forecasting?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 920-964, August.
- Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2019. "How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?," CIRANO Working Papers 2019s-22, CIRANO.
- Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stephane Surprenant, 2020. "How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?," Working Papers 20-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Aug 2020.
- Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & St'ephane Surprenant, 2020. "How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting?," Papers 2008.12477, arXiv.org.
- Hyun Hak Kim & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Mining Big Data Using Parsimonious Factor and Shrinkage Methods," Departmental Working Papers 201316, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Smeekes, Stephan & Wijler, Etienne, 2018.
"Macroeconomic forecasting using penalized regression methods,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 408-430.
- Smeekes, Stephan & Wijler, Etiënne, 2016. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Penalized Regression Methods," Research Memorandum 039, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022.
"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- Tan, Xueping & Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wang, Xinyu, 2022. "Forecasting European carbon returns using dimension reduction techniques: Commodity versus financial fundamentals," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 944-969.
- Kim, Hyun Hak & Swanson, Norman R., 2014.
"Forecasting financial and macroeconomic variables using data reduction methods: New empirical evidence,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 352-367.
- Huyn Hak Kim & Norman R. Swanson, 2011. "Forecasting Financial and Macroeconomic Variables Using Data Reduction Methods: New Empirical Evidence," Departmental Working Papers 201119, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Cheng, Xu & Hansen, Bruce E., 2015.
"Forecasting with factor-augmented regression: A frequentist model averaging approach,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 280-293.
- Xu Cheng & Bruce E. Hansen, 2012. "Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Regression: A Frequentist Model Averaging Approach," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-046, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Daniel Wochner, 2020. "Dynamic Factor Trees and Forests – A Theory-led Machine Learning Framework for Non-Linear and State-Dependent Short-Term U.S. GDP Growth Predictions," KOF Working papers 20-472, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Oguzhan Cepni & I. Ethem Guney & Norman R. Swanson, 2020. "Forecasting and nowcasting emerging market GDP growth rates: The role of latent global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic data surprise factors," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 18-36, January.
- Kutateladze, Varlam, 2022. "The kernel trick for nonlinear factor modeling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 165-177.
- Barbara Rossi, 2019.
"Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them,"
Economics Working Papers
1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
- Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," Working Papers 1162, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2020. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," CEPR Discussion Papers 14472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Varlam Kutateladze, 2021. "The Kernel Trick for Nonlinear Factor Modeling," Papers 2103.01266, arXiv.org.
- Cepni, Oguzhan & Güney, I. Ethem & Swanson, Norman R., 2019. "Nowcasting and forecasting GDP in emerging markets using global financial and macroeconomic diffusion indexes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 555-572.
- Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong, 2018.
"Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?,"
Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 695-746, August.
- Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong, 2018. "Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 695-746, August.
- Sandra Eickmeier & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "How successful are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation? A meta-analytic approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 237-265.
- Ricardo P. Masini & Marcelo C. Medeiros & Eduardo F. Mendes, 2023.
"Machine learning advances for time series forecasting,"
Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 76-111, February.
- Ricardo P. Masini & Marcelo C. Medeiros & Eduardo F. Mendes, 2020. "Machine Learning Advances for Time Series Forecasting," Papers 2012.12802, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
- Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong & Xiye Yang, 2020. "Predicting interest rates using shrinkage methods, real‐time diffusion indexes, and model combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 587-613, August.
- Boriss Siliverstovs & Daniel Wochner, 2019.
"Recessions as Breadwinner for Forecasters State-Dependent Evaluation of Predictive Ability: Evidence from Big Macroeconomic US Data,"
KOF Working papers
19-463, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Boriss Siliverstovs & Daniel Wochner, 2020. "Recessions as Breadwinner for Forecasters State-Dependent Evaluation of Predictive Ability: Evidence from Big Macroeconomic US Data," Working Papers 2020/02, Latvijas Banka.
More about this item
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-BIG-2020-04-06 (Big Data)
- NEP-CMP-2020-04-06 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2020-04-06 (Forecasting)
- NEP-ORE-2020-04-06 (Operations Research)
- NEP-PAY-2020-04-06 (Payment Systems and Financial Technology)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2020cf1146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CIRJE administrative office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ritokjp.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.