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A Nowcasting Model of Exports Using Maritime Big Data

Author

Listed:
  • Kakuho Furukawa

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Ryohei Hisano

    (The University of Tokyo)

Abstract

We nowcast Japan's exports using maritime big data (the Automatic Identification System data), which contains information on vessels such as their locations. The data has been only relatively rarely used for capturing economic trends. In doing so, we improve the accuracy of nowcasts by utilizing official statistics such as geographical data on ports and machine learning techniques. The analysis shows that the nowcasting model augmented with AIS data improves the performance of nowcasting relative to existing statistics (provisional reports on the Trade Statistics of Japan) that is available in close to real-time. In particular, the nowcasting model developed in this paper follows the movements of exports reasonably well even when they increase or decrease significantly (e.g., when the pandemic began in the spring of 2020 and when the supply chain was disrupted around mid-2021).

Suggested Citation

  • Kakuho Furukawa & Ryohei Hisano, 2022. "A Nowcasting Model of Exports Using Maritime Big Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-19, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp22e19
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nowcasting; Alternative data; AIS data; Exports;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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