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The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia's peace agreement with the FARC

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  • Guerra-Cújar, María Elvira
  • Prem, Mounu
  • Rodríguez-Lesmes, Paul
  • Vargas, Juan F.

Abstract

Violent environments are known to affect household fertility choices, demand for health services and health outcomes of newborns. Using administrative data with a difference-in-differences (2011-2018 period), we study how the end of the 50 years old Colombian conflict with FARC modified such decisions and outcomes in traditionally affected areas of the country. Results indicate a reduction in fertility for municipalities traditionally affected by conflict because of the permanent ceasefire (2014). Total fertility rate observed a relative increase of 2.6% in the formerly conflict-affected areas. However, no impact was found for demand of health care services, neonatal and infant mortality rates, or birth outcomes such as the incidence of low weight at birth or the percentage of preterm births. Our evidence shows that municipalities with landmine victims and expelled population by forced displacement before the ceasefire have significantly higher total fertility rate in the four years following the ceasefire.

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  • Guerra-Cújar, María Elvira & Prem, Mounu & Rodríguez-Lesmes, Paul & Vargas, Juan F., 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia's peace agreement with the FARC," Working papers 64, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    • Handle: RePEc:rie:riecdt:64
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernal, Carolina & Prem, Mounu & Vargas, Juan F. & Ortiz, Mónica, 2024. "Peaceful entry: Entrepreneurship dynamics during Colombia’s peace agreement," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    2. Andres M. Urcuqui-Bustamante & Theresa L. Selfa & Paul Hirsch & Catherine M. Ashcraft, 2021. "Uncovering Stakeholder Participation in Payment for Hydrological Services (PHS) Program Decision Making in Mexico and Colombia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-26, July.
    3. Perilla, Sergio & Prem, Mounu & Purroy, Miguel E. & Vargas, Juan F., 2024. "How peace saves lives: Evidence from Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; pregnancy; mortality; armed conflict; violence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development

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