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A natural experiment on job insecurity and fertility in France

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  • Andrew E. Clark
  • Anthony Lepinteur

Abstract

Job insecurity can have wide-ranging consequences outside of the labour market. We here argue that it reduces fertility amongst the employed. The 1999 rise in the French Delalande tax, paid by large private firms when they laid off workers aged over 50, produced an exogenous rise in job insecurity for younger workers in these firms. A difference-in-differences analysis of French ECHP data reveals that this greater job insecurity for these under-50s significantly reduced their probability of having a new child by 3.9 percentage points. Reduced fertility is only found at the intensive margin: job insecurity reduces family size but not the probability of parenthood itself. Our results also suggest negative selection into parenthood, as this fertility effect does not appear for low-income and less-educated workers.

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  • Andrew E. Clark & Anthony Lepinteur, 2020. "A natural experiment on job insecurity and fertility in France," CEP Discussion Papers dp1686, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1686
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    2. Asai, Yukiko & Koustas, Dmitri K., 2023. "Temporary work contracts and female labor market outcomes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 1-20.
    3. Maria De Paola & Roberto Nisticò & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2024. "Workplace Peer Effects in Fertility Decisions," CSEF Working Papers 714, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    4. Lepinteur, Anthony & Clark, Andrew E. & D'Ambrosio, Conchita, 2024. "Unsettled: Job Insecurity Reduces Home-Ownership," IZA Discussion Papers 17038, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Guerra-Cújar, María Elvira & Prem, Mounu & Rodriguez-Lesmes, Paul & Vargas, Juan F., 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with FARC," SocArXiv c2ypd, Center for Open Science.
    6. Sanjesh Kumar & Ranjan Ray, 2024. "Social and emotional well‐being and economic insecurity of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders: A multidimensional approach," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 1982-2004, May.
    7. Conchita D’Ambrosio & Andrew E. Clark & Rémi Yin, 2023. "Economic Insecurity and Health," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 247(4), pages 69-89, December.
    8. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew E. Clark, 2021. "Children, unhappiness and family finances," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 625-653, April.
    9. Anthony Lepinteur, 2021. "The asymmetric experience of gains and losses in job security on health," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(9), pages 2217-2229, September.
    10. Maria De Paola & Roberto Nisticò & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2021. "Academic Careers And Fertility Decisions," Working Papers 202101, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
    11. Nieto, Adrián, 2022. "Can subsidies to permanent employment change fertility decisions?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Pieroni, Luca & d’Agostino, Giorgio & Lanari, Donatella & Scarlato, Margherita, 2023. "Temporary employment and fertility in Italy: The effect of two labor market reforms in the early 2000s," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    13. Rohde, Nicholas, 2023. "Economic insecurity, nativism, and the erosion of institutional trust," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1017-1028.
    14. Shao‐Hsun Keng, 2024. "The Causal Effect of Financial Crisis and Its Long‐Run Impact on Fertility," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 100(329), pages 188-208, June.
    15. Giammarco Alderotti & Raffaele Guetto & Paolo Barbieri & Stefani Scherer & Daniele Vignoli, 2022. "Unstable Employment Careers and Completed Fertility before and after Labour Market Deregulation in Italy," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2022_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    16. Francesca Carta & Alessandra Casarico & Marta De Philippis & Salvatore Lattanzio, 2024. "Mom's out: employment after childbirth and firm-level responses," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1458, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Olga Cantó & Carmelo García Pérez & Marina Romaguera de la Cruz, 2023. "The Role of Tax-Benefit Systems in Shaping Economic Insecurity in the European Union," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 247(4), pages 7-36, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    employment protection; layoff tax; perceived job security; difference-in-differences; fertility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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