IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/poprpr/v38y2019i2d10.1007_s11113-018-9489-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Armed Conflict and Fertility in Colombia, 2000–2010

Author

Listed:
  • Andrés Felipe Castro Torres

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • B. Piedad Urdinola

    (Universidad Nacional de Colombia-Bogotá)

Abstract

This paper looks at the association between the Colombian Armed Internal Conflict (AIC) and fertility for women in the first decade of the 21st century when the conflict underwent a strategic change after the escalation of armed action by outlaw groups and frontal response by the Colombian government. We fit a Poisson model that incorporates spatial and temporal information, using individual-level data from the Colombian Demographic and Health Surveys from 2000 to 2010 and novel information, for the Colombian case, on the number of armed actions. In rural areas, we find that the AIC had a significant positive association with fertility and non-significant relationship in urban areas, of any size with robust and consistent estimators. Two possible explanations may clarify these results for a long-term conflict such as that in Colombia: (i) women’s responses to higher mortality levels and (ii) the weakening of local institutions assumed to provide protection and health-related services to women. Other than the improvement of health-related services in areas affected by the conflict, we also suggest data collection on these latter conditions directly from the population involved to facilitate future research on the connection between conflicts and demographic outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Felipe Castro Torres & B. Piedad Urdinola, 2019. "Armed Conflict and Fertility in Colombia, 2000–2010," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(2), pages 173-213, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:38:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11113-018-9489-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-018-9489-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11113-018-9489-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11113-018-9489-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grant Miller & B. Piedad Urdinola, 2010. "Cyclicality, Mortality, and the Value of Time: The Case of Coffee Price Fluctuations and Child Survival in Colombia," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(1), pages 113-155, February.
    2. Arias María Alejandra & Ibáñez Ana María & Querubin Pablo, 2014. "The Desire to Return during Civil War: Evidence for Internally Displaced Populations in Colombia," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 209-233, January.
    3. Islam, Asadul & Ouch, Chandarany & Smyth, Russell & Wang, Liang Choon, 2016. "The long-term effects of civil conflicts on education, earnings, and fertility: Evidence from Cambodia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 800-820.
    4. Henrik Urdal & Chi Primus Che, 2013. "War and Gender Inequalities in Health: The Impact of Armed Conflict on Fertility and Maternal Mortality," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 489-510, September.
    5. Alejandro Portes, 2006. "Institutions and Development: A Conceptual Reanalysis," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 32(2), pages 233-262, June.
    6. Stone, Leslie F. & Olgiati, Analía & Duryea, Suzanne, 2006. "The Under-Registration of Births in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1565, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Suzanne Duryea & Analía Olgiati & Leslie Stone, 2006. "The Under-Registration of Births in Latin America," Research Department Publications 4443, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    8. Kati Schindler & Tilman Br�ck, 2011. "The Effects of Conflict on Fertility in Rwanda," HiCN Working Papers 102, Households in Conflict Network.
    9. Piedad Urdinola C., 2004. "Could political violence affect infant mortality? The colombian case," Coyuntura Social 12914, Fedesarrollo.
    10. Kati Kraehnert & Tilman Brück & Michele Di Maio & Roberto Nisticò, 2019. "The Effects of Conflict on Fertility: Evidence From the Genocide in Rwanda," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(3), pages 935-968, June.
    11. Tom Bundervoet & Philip Verwimp & Richard Akresh, 2009. "Health and Civil War in Rural Burundi," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
    12. Akresh, Richard & Lucchetti, Leonardo & Thirumurthy, Harsha, 2012. "Wars and child health: Evidence from the Eritrean–Ethiopian conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 330-340.
    13. Flórez Nieto, Carmen Elisa & Soto, Victoria Eugenia, 2007. "Fecundidad adolescente y desigualdad en Colombia," Notas de Población, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    14. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    15. Philip Verwimp & Jan Bavel, 2005. "Child Survival and Fertility of Refugees in Rwanda," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 271-290, June.
    16. Engel, Stefanie & Ibanez, Ana Maria, 2007. "Displacement Due to Violence in Colombia: A Household-Level Analysis," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 335-365, January.
    17. Helge Brunborg & Henrik Urdal, 2005. "The Demography of Conflict and Violence: An Introduction," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 42(4), pages 371-374, July.
    18. Valeria Cetorelli, 2014. "The Effect on Fertility of the 2003–2011 War in Iraq," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(4), pages 581-604, December.
    19. Gebremariam Woldemicael, 2008. "Recent fertility decline in Eritrea," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 18(2), pages 27-58.
    20. B. Piedad Urdinola & Carlos Ospino, 2015. "Long-term consequences of adolescent fertility: The Colombian case," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(55), pages 1487-1518.
    21. John C. Caldwell, 2004. "Demographic Theory: A Long View," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(2), pages 297-316, June.
    22. Ewa Batyra, 2016. "Fertility and the changing pattern of the timing of childbearing in Colombia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(46), pages 1343-1372.
    23. Ana María Ibáñez, 2009. "Forced displacement in Colombia: Magnitude and causes," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 48-54, January.
    24. Victor Agadjanian & Ndola Prata, 2002. "War, peace, and fertility in Angola," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(2), pages 215-231, May.
    25. Gollini, Isabella & Lu, Binbin & Charlton, Martin & Brunsdon, Christopher & Harris, Paul, 2015. "GWmodel: An R Package for Exploring Spatial Heterogeneity Using Geographically Weighted Models," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 63(i17).
    26. Jeroen Smits & Roel Steendijk, 2015. "The International Wealth Index (IWI)," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 65-85, May.
    27. David Lindstrom & Betemariam Berhanu, 1999. "The impact of war, famine, and economic decline on marital fertility in ethiopia," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 36(2), pages 247-261, May.
    28. Ibáñez, Ana María & Moya, Andrés, 2010. "Vulnerability of Victims of Civil Conflicts: Empirical Evidence for the Displaced Population in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 647-663, April.
    29. David Clifford & Jane Falkingham & Andrew Hinde, 2010. "Through Civil War, Food Crisis and Drought: Trends in Fertility and Nuptiality in Post-Soviet Tajikistan [Au Travers de la Guerre Civile, de la Crise Alimentaire et de la Sécheresse : les Évolution," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 325-350, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guerra-Cújar, María Elvira & Prem, Mounu & Rodriguez-Lesmes, Paul & Vargas, Juan F., 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with FARC," SocArXiv c2ypd, Center for Open Science.
    2. Mera León, Harold, 2023. "Stillbirths, miscarriages and early losses in armed conflict contexts. The modification effect of violence. The Colombian case," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    3. Ginevra Floridi & Maria Gargiulo & José Manuel Aburto, 2023. "Changes in fertility rates and desires in the wake of the homicide surge in Mexico," HiCN Working Papers 399, Households in Conflict Network.
    4. Andrés F. Castro Torres, 2020. "Analysis of Latin American fertility change in terms of probable social classes," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Apsara Karki Nepal & Martin Halla & Steven Stillman, 2018. "Violent Conflict and the Child Quantity-Quality Tradeoff," Economics working papers 2018-15, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    2. Prem, M & Guerra, M. E. & Rodríguez, P & Vargas, J. F., 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with the FARC," Documentos de Trabajo 18430, Universidad del Rosario.
    3. Brian C. Thiede & Matthew Hancock & Ahmed Kodouda & James Piazza, 2020. "Exposure to Armed Conflict and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2113-2141, December.
    4. Prem, M & Guerra, M. E. & Rodríguez, P & Vargas, J. F., 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with the FARC," Documentos de Trabajo 18430, Universidad del Rosario.
    5. Bove, Vincenzo & Di Salvatore, Jessica & Elia, Leandro & Nisticò, Roberto, 2024. "Mothers at peace: International peacebuilding and post-conflict fertility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    6. Kati Kraehnert & Tilman Brück & Michele Di Maio & Roberto Nisticò, 2019. "The Effects of Conflict on Fertility: Evidence From the Genocide in Rwanda," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(3), pages 935-968, June.
    7. Tatsuki Inoue amd Erika Igarashi, 2023. "The far-reaching effects of bombing on fertility in mid-20th century Japan," Papers 2306.05770, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    8. Daniel Zaga, 2014. "Masked Development: Exploring the Hidden Benefits of the Zapatista Conflict," CFD Working Papers 08-2015, Centre for Finance and Development, The Graduate Institute.
    9. Michelle L. O’Brien, 2021. "The Consequences of the Tajikistani Civil War for Abortion and Miscarriage," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(5), pages 1061-1084, October.
    10. repec:hic:wpaper:202 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Orsola Torrisi, 2020. "Armed Conflict and the Timing of Childbearing in Azerbaijan," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(3), pages 501-556, September.
    12. Tilman Br�ck & Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp & Andrew Tedesco & Alexandra Avdeenko, 2013. "Measuring Conflict Exposure in Micro-Level Surveys," HiCN Working Papers 153, Households in Conflict Network.
    13. Olga Shemyakina, 2013. "Patterns in Female Age at First Marriage and Tajik Armed Conflict [Les évolutions de l’âge des femmes au premier mariage et le conflit armé Tadjike]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 303-343, August.
    14. Powdthavee, Nattavudh & Oswald, Andrew J. & Lockwood, Ben, 2024. "Are environmental concerns deterring people from having children? Longitudinal evidence on births in the UK," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    15. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp & Alexandra Avdeenko & Andrew Tedesco, 2016. "Measuring Violent Conflict in Micro-level Surveys: Current Practices and Methodological Challenges," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 31(1), pages 29-58.
    16. Dagnelie, Olivier & Luca, Giacomo Davide De & Maystadt, Jean-François, 2018. "Violence, selection and infant mortality in Congo," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 153-177.
    17. Mercier, Marion & Ngenzebuke, Rama Lionel & Verwimp, Philip, 2020. "Violence exposure and poverty: Evidence from the Burundi civil war," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 822-840.
    18. Achyuta Adhvaryu & James Fenske, 2013. "War, resilience and political engagement in Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2013-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    19. Schindler, Kati & Bruck, Tilman, 2011. "The effects of conflict on fertility in Rwanda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5715, The World Bank.
    20. Achyuta Adhvaryu & James Fenske, 2014. "Conflict and the Formation of Political Beliefs in Africa," HiCN Working Papers 164, Households in Conflict Network.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:38:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11113-018-9489-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.