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Recent fertility decline in Eritrea

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  • Gebremariam Woldemicael

    (University of Western Ontario)

Abstract

During a period of military conflict towards the end of the 1990s, Eritrea experienced a remarkable decline in fertility. This decline has been a concern to many Eritreans. An important issue of concern has been whether the decline is driven primarily by the recent border conflict with Ethiopia or by changes in other factors including delay in age at marriage, improvements in child survival and the socio-cultural changes that pre-dated the conflict. Using retrospective event histories from the 1995 and 2002 Eritrea Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS), this study provides an in-depth exploration of recent fertility change in Eritrea. The findings illustrate that although marriage delay might have played a role in the decline of first births, a decline in fertility within marriage – partly due to cessation of childbearing after families reach their desired family size - is the major contributor to the overall decline. Even though we cannot conclude that the overall fertility decline primarily is the outcome of the conflict, there is evidence that it has contributed substantially to the decline, particularly for first birth fertility. The implications of these findings for theories about fertility change in times of military conflict is that crises may not be likely to initiate a sustainable overall fertility transition, but can still prompt short-term fertility changes among certain social groups or modify an ongoing decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Gebremariam Woldemicael, 2008. "Recent fertility decline in Eritrea," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 18(2), pages 27-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:18:y:2008:i:2
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2008.18.2
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    Cited by:

    1. SHAPIRO David & TENIKUE Michel, 2015. "Women’s Education, Infant and Child Mortality, and Fertility Decline in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Quantitative Assessment," LISER Working Paper Series 2015-07, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    2. Brian C. Thiede & Matthew Hancock & Ahmed Kodouda & James Piazza, 2020. "Exposure to Armed Conflict and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2113-2141, December.
    3. Guerra-Cújar, María Elvira & Prem, Mounu & Rodriguez-Lesmes, Paul & Vargas, Juan F., 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with FARC," SocArXiv c2ypd, Center for Open Science.
    4. Nepal, Apsara Karki & Halla, Martin & Stillman, Steven, 2018. "Violent Conflict and the Child Quantity-Quality Tradeoff," IZA Discussion Papers 11690, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Magda Tsaneva & Pinar Mine Gunes, 2020. "The effect of violent crime on teenage pregnancy in Mexico," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 141-164, March.
    6. Schindler, Kati & Bruck, Tilman, 2011. "The effects of conflict on fertility in Rwanda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5715, The World Bank.
    7. Amjad Ali & Ismail Senturk, 2019. "Justifying the Impact of Economic Deprivation, Maternal Status and Health infrastructure on Under-Five Child Mortality in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(3), pages 140-154, September.
    8. Tatsuki Inoue amd Erika Igarashi, 2023. "The far-reaching effects of bombing on fertility in mid-20th century Japan," Papers 2306.05770, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    9. Henrik Urdal & Chi Primus Che, 2013. "War and Gender Inequalities in Health: The Impact of Armed Conflict on Fertility and Maternal Mortality," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 489-510, September.
    10. Valeria Cetorelli, 2014. "The Effect on Fertility of the 2003–2011 War in Iraq," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(4), pages 581-604, December.
    11. Kati Kraehnert & Tilman Brück & Michele Di Maio & Roberto Nisticò, 2019. "The Effects of Conflict on Fertility: Evidence From the Genocide in Rwanda," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(3), pages 935-968, June.
    12. César Guadalupe, 2017. "A temporary contraction in the number of Peruvian births circa 1990: documenting a previously undetected event," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 233-252, September.
    13. David Shapiro & Michel Tenikue, 2017. "Women’s education, infant and child mortality, and fertility decline in urban and rural sub-Saharan Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(21), pages 669-708.
    14. Najjarnejad, Negin & Bromfield, Nicole, 2022. "Professional stakeholders’ perceptions of child marriage in Lebanon among Syrian refugees," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    15. Lockwood, Ben & Powdthavee, Nattavudh & Oswald, Andrew J., 2022. "Are Environmental Concerns Deterring People from Having Children?," IZA Discussion Papers 15620, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Orsola Torrisi, 2020. "Armed Conflict and the Timing of Childbearing in Azerbaijan," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(3), pages 501-556, September.
    17. Andrés Felipe Castro Torres & B. Piedad Urdinola, 2019. "Armed Conflict and Fertility in Colombia, 2000–2010," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(2), pages 173-213, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility transition; Eritrea; trend analysis; limiting further childbearing; onset of long-term decline;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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