IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v171y2024ics0304387824000701.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

College opportunity and teen fertility: Evidence from Ser Pilo Paga in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Bloem, Michael D.
  • Villero, Jesús

Abstract

We study the effects of an increase in post-secondary educational opportunities on teen fertility by exploiting policy-induced variation from Ser Pilo Paga (SPP), a generous college financial aid program in Colombia that dramatically expanded college opportunities for low-income students. Our preferred empirical approach uses a triple difference design that leverages variation in the share of female students eligible for the program across municipalities and the fact that the introduction of SPP should not affect the education and fertility decisions of older women not targeted by the program. We find that after the introduction of SPP, fertility rates for women aged 15–19 years old decreased in more affected municipalities by about 6 percent relative to less affected municipalities. This effect accounts for approximately one-fourth of the overall decrease in teen fertility observed in the years following the program’s announcement. Our results suggest that increasing economic opportunities through expanding college access can contribute to lowering teen fertility rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Bloem, Michael D. & Villero, Jesús, 2024. "College opportunity and teen fertility: Evidence from Ser Pilo Paga in Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:171:y:2024:i:c:s0304387824000701
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103321
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387824000701
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103321?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berthelon, Matias E. & Kruger, Diana I., 2011. "Risky behavior among youth: Incapacitation effects of school on adolescent motherhood and crime in Chile," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1-2), pages 41-53, February.
    2. Karthik Muralidharan & Nishith Prakash, 2017. "Cycling to School: Increasing Secondary School Enrollment for Girls in India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 321-350, July.
    3. Kelly, Andrea & Lindo, Jason M. & Packham, Analisa, 2020. "The power of the IUD: Effects of expanding access to contraception through Title X clinics," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    4. Fischer, Stefanie & Royer, Heather & White, Corey, 2018. "The impacts of reduced access to abortion and family planning services on abortions, births, and contraceptive purchases," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 43-68.
    5. Esther Duflo & Pascaline Dupas & Michael Kremer, 2021. "The Impact of Free Secondary Education: Experimental Evidence from Ghana," NBER Working Papers 28937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Andreas Olden & Jarle Møen, 2022. "The triple difference estimator [Semiparametric difference-in-differences estimators]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(3), pages 531-553.
    7. Mounu Prem & Juan F. Vargas & Olga Namen, 2023. "The Human Capital Peace Dividend," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(3), pages 962-1002.
    8. Esther Duflo & Pascaline Dupas & Michael Kremer, 2015. "Education, HIV, and Early Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Kenya," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(9), pages 2757-2797, September.
    9. Justin McCrary & Heather Royer, 2011. "The Effect of Female Education on Fertility and Infant Health: Evidence from School Entry Policies Using Exact Date of Birth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 158-195, February.
    10. Luz Karime Abadía & Gloria Bernal, 2017. "A Widening Gap? A Gender-Based Analysis of Performance on the Colombian High School Exit Examination," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 20(1), pages 5-31, June.
    11. Lisa J. Dettling & Melissa Schettini Kearney, 2023. "The Cyclicality of Births and Babies’ Health, Revisited: Evidence from Unemployment Insurance," NBER Working Papers 30937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Anna Aizer & Paul Devereux & Kjell Salvanes, 2022. "Grandparents, Moms, or Dads? Why Children of Teen Mothers Do Worse in Life," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(6), pages 2012-2047.
    13. Cowan, Benjamin W., 2011. "Forward-thinking teens: The effects of college costs on adolescent risky behavior," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 813-825, October.
    14. SandraE. Black & PaulJ. Devereux & KjellG. Salvanes, 2008. "Staying in the Classroom and out of the maternity ward? The effect of compulsory schooling laws on teenage births," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1025-1054, July.
    15. Orazio P. Attanasio & Lina Cardona-Sosa & Carlos Medina & Costas Meghir & Christian Posso, 2021. "Long Term Effects of Cash Transfer Programs in Colombia," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2293, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    16. Juliana Londoño-Vélez & Catherine Rodríguez & Fabio Sánchez, 2020. "Upstream and Downstream Impacts of College Merit-Based Financial Aid for Low-Income Students: Ser Pilo Paga in Colombia," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 193-227, May.
    17. Ashesh Rambachan & Jonathan Roth, 2023. "A More Credible Approach to Parallel Trends," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2555-2591.
    18. Bernal, Carolina & Prem, Mounu & Vargas, Juan F. & Ortiz, Mónica, 2024. "Peaceful entry: Entrepreneurship dynamics during Colombia’s peace agreement," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    19. Karina Margarita Acevedo & Iván David Bornacelly, 2014. "Panel Municipal del CEDE," Documentos CEDE 12223, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    20. Hincapie, Diana, 2016. "Do Longer School Days Improve Student Achievement?: Evidence from Colombia," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7545, Inter-American Development Bank.
    21. Melissa S. Kearney & Phillip B. Levine, 2012. "Why Is the Teen Birth Rate in the United States So High and Why Does It Matter?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 141-163, Spring.
    22. Susan Dynarski & CJ Libassi & Katherine Michelmore & Stephanie Owen, 2021. "Closing the Gap: The Effect of Reducing Complexity and Uncertainty in College Pricing on the Choices of Low-Income Students," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(6), pages 1721-1756, June.
    23. Prem, Mounu & Saavedra, Santiago & Vargas, Juan F., 2020. "End-of-conflict deforestation: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    24. Laajaj, Rachid & Moya, Andrés & Sánchez, Fabio, 2022. "Equality of opportunity and human capital accumulation: Motivational effect of a nationwide scholarship in Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    25. Koohi, Shiva, 2017. "College prospects and risky behavior among Mexican immigrant youth: The effects of in-state tuition policies on schooling and childbearing," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 162-174.
    26. Gamboa, Luis Fernando & Rodriguez Lesmes, Paul, 2019. "The fertility-inhibiting effect of mosquitoes: Socio-economic differences in response to the Zika crisis in Colombia," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 63-72.
    27. Ariella Kahn-Lang & Kevin Lang, 2020. "The Promise and Pitfalls of Differences-in-Differences: Reflections on 16 and Pregnant and Other Applications," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 613-620, July.
    28. B. Piedad Urdinola & Carlos Ospino, 2015. "Long-term consequences of adolescent fertility: The Colombian case," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(55), pages 1487-1518.
    29. Willis, Robert J, 1973. "A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 14-64, Part II, .
    30. Cáceres-Delpiano, Julio & Giolito, Eugenio & Castillo, Sebastián, 2018. "Early impacts of college aid," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 154-166.
    31. María Laura Alzúa & Cecilia Velázquez, 2017. "The effect of education on teenage fertility: causal evidence for Argentina," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-23, December.
    32. Bernal, Gloria L. & Penney, Jeffrey, 2019. "Scholarships and student effort: Evidence from Colombia’s Ser Pilo Paga program," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 121-130.
    33. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Sergio Correia & Paulo Guimarães & Tom Zylkin, 2020. "Fast Poisson estimation with high-dimensional fixed effects," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 20(1), pages 95-115, March.
    35. Simon Heß, 2017. "Randomization inference with Stata: A guide and software," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 17(3), pages 630-651, September.
    36. Jonathan Roth, 2022. "Pretest with Caution: Event-Study Estimates after Testing for Parallel Trends," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 305-322, September.
    37. Jiafeng Chen & Jonathan Roth, 2024. "Logs with Zeros? Some Problems and Solutions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(2), pages 891-936.
    38. Jason M. Lindo & Analisa Packham, 2017. "How Much Can Expanding Access to Long-Acting Reversible Contraceptives Reduce Teen Birth Rates?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 348-376, August.
    39. Melissa S. Kearney & Phillip B. Levine, 2014. "Income Inequality and Early Nonmarital Childbearing," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(1), pages 1-31.
    40. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2023. "Simple approaches to nonlinear difference-in-differences with panel data," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 31-66.
    41. Alejandro Gaviria, 2010. "Cambio social en Colombia durante la segunda mitad del siglo XX," Documentos CEDE 7714, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    42. Eric P. Bettinger & Bridget Terry Long & Philip Oreopoulos & Lisa Sanbonmatsu, 2012. "The Role of Application Assistance and Information in College Decisions: Results from the H&R Block Fafsa Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1205-1242.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Perilla, Sergio & Prem, Mounu & Purroy, Miguel E. & Vargas, Juan F., 2024. "How peace saves lives: Evidence from Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    2. Katy Bergstrom & Berk Özler, 2023. "Improving the Well-Being of Adolescent Girls in Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 38(2), pages 179-212.
    3. Celhay, Pablo A. & Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio & Riquelme, Cristina, 2024. "When a strike strikes twice: Massive student mobilizations and teenage pregnancy in Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    4. Pablo Celhay & Emilio Depetris-Chauvin & María Cristina Riquelme, 2020. "When a Strike Streikes Twice: Massive Student Mobilizations and Teenage," Documentos de Trabajo 550, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    5. Posso, Christian & Saravia, Estefanía & Uribe, Pablo, 2023. "Acing the test: Educational effects of the SaberEs test preparation program in Colombia," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    6. Anna Adamecz-Völgyi & Ágota Scharle, 2020. "Books or babies? The incapacitation effect of schooling on minority women," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1219-1261, October.
    7. Prem, M & Guerra, M. E. & Rodríguez, P & Vargas, J. F., 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with the FARC," Documentos de Trabajo 18430, Universidad del Rosario.
    8. Frederik Wild & David Stadelmann, 2024. "Heterogeneous Effects of Women's Schooling on Fertility, Literacy and Work: Evidence from Burundi's Free Primary Education Policy," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 33(1), pages 67-91.
    9. Guerra-Cújar, María Elvira & Prem, Mounu & Rodriguez-Lesmes, Paul & Vargas, Juan F., 2020. "A Peace Baby Boom? Evidence from Colombia's Peace Agreement," SocArXiv c2ypd_v1, Center for Open Science.
    10. Keats, Anthony, 2018. "Women's schooling, fertility, and child health outcomes: Evidence from Uganda's free primary education program," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 142-159.
    11. Fatma Romeh M. Ali & Shiferaw Gurmu, 2018. "The impact of female education on fertility: a natural experiment from Egypt," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 681-712, September.
    12. Arne Henningsen & Guy Low & David Wuepper & Tobias Dalhaus & Hugo Storm & Dagim Belay & Stefan Hirsch, 2024. "Estimating Causal Effects with Observational Data: Guidelines for Agricultural and Applied Economists," IFRO Working Paper 2024/03, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    13. Fletcher, Jason M. & Polos, Jessica, 2017. "Nonmarital and Teen Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 10833, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Cygan-Rehm, Kamila & Maeder, Miriam, 2013. "The effect of education on fertility: Evidence from a compulsory schooling reform," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 35-48.
    15. DeCicca, Philip & Krashinsky, Harry, 2020. "Does education reduce teen fertility? Evidence from compulsory schooling laws," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    16. Kim, Dongin & Steinbach, Sandro & Zurita, Carlos, 2024. "Deep trade agreements and agri-food global value chain integration," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    17. Federico N Daverio-Occhini & María Montoya-Aguirre & Máximo Ponce de León & L Guillermo Woo-Mora, 2024. "Moral Force: Leaders' Actions and Public Health Compliance in Crisis," PSE Working Papers halshs-04721932, HAL.
    18. Aaron M. Gamino, 2024. "The impact of juvenile curfews on teenage birth rates," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 1528-1545, July.
    19. Zhang, Hongliang & Assaad, Ragui, 2024. "Women’s access to school, educational attainment, and fertility: Evidence from Jordan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    20. James, Jonathan & Vujić, Sunčica, 2019. "From high school to the high chair: Education and fertility timing," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-24.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    College opportunity; Teen fertility; Inequality; Financial aid;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
    • I22 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Educational Finance; Financial Aid
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:171:y:2024:i:c:s0304387824000701. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.