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Peaceful entry: Entrepreneurship dynamics during Colombia’s peace agreement

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  • Bernal, Carolina
  • Prem, Mounu
  • Vargas, Juan F.
  • Ortiz, Mónica

Abstract

The end of internal conflict is often shaped by political uncertainty and threats of violence recurrence. This implies that the effects of conflict termination on economic activity and specifically entrepreneurship can go in either direction, and we know little about this relationship. Studying Colombia’s recent peace agreement with the FARC guerrilla, and using a difference-in-differences empirical strategy, we document that dynamics of entrepreneurship in traditionally violent areas closely mapped the politics that surrounded the peace agreement. When the agreement was imminent after a 5-decade conflict and violence had plummeted, local investors from all economic sectors established new firms and created jobs. Instead, when the agreement was rejected in a referendum, the party that promoted this rejection raised to power, and violence re-escalated, the rate of firms’ creation rapidly reversed.

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  • Bernal, Carolina & Prem, Mounu & Vargas, Juan F. & Ortiz, Mónica, 2024. "Peaceful entry: Entrepreneurship dynamics during Colombia’s peace agreement," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:166:y:2024:i:c:s0304387823000743
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103119
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    Cited by:

    1. Mora, Claudio & Prem, Mounu & Rodriguez-Lesmes, Paul & Vargas, Juan F., 2024. "Health Workforce Reallocation in the Aftermath of Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," SocArXiv 2dwfu, Center for Open Science.
    2. Martin, Diego A. & Romero, Dario A., 2024. "Social distancing and COVID-19 under violence: Evidence from Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Perilla, Sergio & Prem, Mounu & Purroy, Miguel E. & Vargas, Juan F., 2024. "How peace saves lives: Evidence from Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    4. Miguel Fajardo-Steinhauser, 2023. "Peace Dividends: The Economic Effects of Colombia's Peace Agreement," Papers 2301.01843, arXiv.org.
    5. Del Prete, Davide & Di Maio, Michele & Rahman, Aminur, 2023. "Firms amid conflict: Performance, production inputs, and market competition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    6. Guerra-Cújar, María Elvira & Prem, Mounu & Rodriguez-Lesmes, Paul & Vargas, Juan F., 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with FARC," SocArXiv c2ypd, Center for Open Science.
    7. Marín Llanes, Lucas & Fernández Sierra, Manuel & Vélez Lesmes, María Alejandra & Martínez González, Eduard & Murillo Sandoval, Paulo, 2024. "Coca-Based Local Growth and Its Socio-Economic Impact in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 21186, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    8. Mueces, Brigitte V. & Akhundjanov, Sherzod B. & Oladi, Reza, 2024. "Conflict and Foreign Direct Investment: The Colombian Case," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343619, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firm entry; Conflict; Peace agreement; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis

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