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The Use of Replacement Workers in Union Contract Negotiations: The U.S. Experience, 1980-1989

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Abstract

It is argued in many circles that a structural change occurred in U.S. collective bargaining in the 1980s. Strike incidence declined, dispute incidence increased, and the composition of disputes shifted away from strikes and toward holdouts. We investigate the extent to which the hiring of replacement workers can account for these changes. For a sample of over 300 major strikes since 1980, we estimate the likelihood of replacements being hired. We find that the risk of replacement is lower for bargaining units with more experienced workers, and declines during tight labor markets. The composition of disputes shifts away from strikes as the predicted risk of replacement increases. In addition, the overall level of disputes increases as a result of the shift in the composition of disputes. Based on our estimates reducing the predicted replacement risk faced by bargaining units to the pre-1982 levels would have lead to a reduction in the dispute incidence by around 5 percentage points, an increase in the fraction of disputes involving a strike by around 4 percentage points, and an increase in the strike incidence by around 0.8 percentage points.

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  • Peter Cramton & Joseph S. Tracy, 1998. "The Use of Replacement Workers in Union Contract Negotiations: The U.S. Experience, 1980-1989," Papers of Peter Cramton 98jole, University of Maryland, Department of Economics - Peter Cramton, revised 09 Jun 1998.
    • Handle: RePEc:pcc:pccumd:98jole
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    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan Gruber & Samuel A. Kleiner, 2012. "Do Strikes Kill? Evidence from New York State," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 127-157, February.
    2. David M. Frankel, 2010. "Rent Seeking and Economic Fragility," Levine's Bibliography 661465000000000159, UCLA Department of Economics.
    3. Barry T. Hirsch, 2008. "Sluggish Institutions in a Dynamic World: Can Unions and Industrial Competition Coexist?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 153-176, Winter.
    4. Barry T. Hirsch, 2012. "Unions, dynamism, and economic performance," Chapters, in: Cynthia L. Estlund & Michael L. Wachter (ed.), Research Handbook on the Economics of Labor and Employment Law, chapter 4, pages 107-145, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Landeo, Claudia & Nikitin, Maxim, 2015. "Effective Labor Relations Laws and Social Welfare," Working Papers 2015-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    6. John Kallas, 2023. "Retooling militancy: Labour revitalization and fixed‐duration strikes," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 68-88, March.
    7. Jesse A. Schwartz & Quan Wen, 2006. "Wage Bargaining Under the National Labor Relations Act," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 1017-1039, December.
    8. Paulo Bastos & Udo Kreickemeier & Peter W. Wright, 2010. "Open‐shop unions and product market competition," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 640-662, May.
    9. Bastos, Paulo & Kreickemeier, Udo & Wright, Peter, 2009. "Oligopoly, open shop unions and trade liberalisation," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 679-686, November.
    10. Suresh Naidu, 2022. "Is There Any Future for a US Labor Movement?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 3-28, Fall.
    11. Henry S. Farber & Bruce Western, 2000. "Round Up The Usual Suspects: The Decline of Unions in The Private Sector, 1973-1998," Working Papers 816, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    12. Henry S. Farber & Bruce Western, 2000. "Round Up The Usual Suspects: The Decline of Unions in The Private Sector, 1973-1998," Working Papers 816, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Collective Bargaining; Strikes; Holdouts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C78 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Bargaining Theory; Matching Theory
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J52 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Dispute Resolution: Strikes, Arbitration, and Mediation
    • J58 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Public Policy

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