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Bayesian estimation of age-specific mortality and life expectancy for small areas with defective vital records

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  • Schmertmann, Carl

    (Florida State University)

  • Gonzaga, Marcos Roberto

Abstract

We develop a Bayesian regression model for small-area mortality schedules that simultaneously addresses the problems of small local samples and underreporting of deaths. We combine a relational model for mortality schedules with probabilistic prior information on death registration coverage – derived from demographic estimation techniques such as Death Distribution Methods, and from field audits done by public health experts. We test the model on small-area data from Brazil. Incorporating external estimates of vital registration coverage though priors improves small-area mortality estimates by accounting for under-registration, and by automatically producing measures of uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmertmann, Carl & Gonzaga, Marcos Roberto, 2018. "Bayesian estimation of age-specific mortality and life expectancy for small areas with defective vital records," SocArXiv syzwx_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:syzwx_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/syzwx_v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Queiroz, Bernardo L & Gonzaga, Marcos Roberto & Nogales, Ana Maria & Torrente, Bruno & de Abreu, Daisy Maria Xavier, 2019. "Life expectancy, adult mortality and completeness of death counts in Brazil and regions: comparative analysis of IHME, IBGE and other researchers estimates of levels and trends," OSF Preprints pj3sx_v1, Center for Open Science.

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