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A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation

Author

Listed:
  • John Wilmoth
  • Sarah Zureick
  • Vladimir Canudas-Romo
  • Mie Inoue
  • Cheryl Sawyer

Abstract

Mortality estimates for many populations are derived using model life tables, which describe typical age patterns of human mortality. We propose a new system of model life tables as a means of improving the quality and transparency of such estimates. A flexible two-dimensional model was fitted to a collection of life tables from the Human Mortality Database. The model can be used to estimate full life tables given one or two pieces of information: child mortality only, or child and adult mortality. Using life tables from a variety of sources, we have compared the performance of new and old methods. The new model outperforms the Coale–Demeny and UN model life tables. Estimation errors are similar to those produced by the modified Brass logit procedure. The proposed model is better suited to the practical needs of mortality estimation, since both input parameters are continuous yet the second one is optional.

Suggested Citation

  • John Wilmoth & Sarah Zureick & Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Mie Inoue & Cheryl Sawyer, 2012. "A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(1), pages 1-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:1:p:1-28
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2011.611411
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    Cited by:

    1. Carl P. Schmertmann & Marcos R. Gonzaga, 2018. "Bayesian Estimation of Age-Specific Mortality and Life Expectancy for Small Areas With Defective Vital Records," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1363-1388, August.
    2. Julio E. Romero-Prieto, 2016. "Población y desarrollo en la periferia colombiana en el siglo XX," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 10(1), pages 7-50, June.
    3. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    4. Julio E. Romero-Prieto, 2016. "Aspectos socioeconómicos de la mortalidad en el Pacífico colombiano," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 10(2), pages 75-124, December.
    5. Mathew E. Hauer & Carl P. Schmertmann, 2020. "Population Pyramids Yield Accurate Estimates of Total Fertility Rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(1), pages 221-241, February.
    6. Cheng Li & Hong Mi, 2021. "Assessments of provincial mortality in China’s 2010 population census based on the Developing Countries Mortality Database model life table," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 169-196, June.
    7. Adolfo Meisel Roca & Julio E. Romero Prieto, 2017. "La mortalidad de la Guerra de los Mil Días, 1899-1902," Cuadernos de Historia Económica 43, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Hallie Eilerts & Julio Romero-Prieto & Jeffrey Eaton & Georges Reniers, 2021. "Age patterns of under-5 mortality in sub-Saharan Africa during 1990‒2018: A comparison of estimates from demographic surveillance with full birth histories and the historic record," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(18), pages 415-442.
    9. Yu Horiguchi, 2024. "Application of the Extended Log Quad Model to Municipal Life Tables," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(4), pages 1-19, August.
    10. Pinheiro, Pedro Cisalpino & Queiroz, Bernardo L, 2018. "Regional Disparities in Brazilian Adult Mortality: an analysis using Modal Age at Death (M) and Compression of Mortality (IQR)," OSF Preprints t2ey3, Center for Open Science.
    11. Marius D. Pascariu & Ugofilippo Basellini & José Manuel Aburto & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2020. "The Linear Link: Deriving Age-Specific Death Rates from Life Expectancy," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-18, October.
    12. David J Sharrow & Samuel J Clark & Adrian E Raftery, 2014. "Modeling Age-Specific Mortality for Countries with Generalized HIV Epidemics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(5), pages 1-10, May.
    13. Pascariu, Marius D. & Canudas-Romo, Vladimir & Vaupel, James W., 2018. "The double-gap life expectancy forecasting model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 339-350.
    14. Julio E. Romero-Prieto & Adolfo Meisel-Roca, 2019. "Análisis demográfico de la Violencia en Colombia," Cuadernos de Historia Económica 50, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Samuel J. Clark, 2019. "A General Age-Specific Mortality Model With an Example Indexed by Child Mortality or Both Child and Adult Mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(3), pages 1131-1159, June.
    16. Julio E. Romero-Prieto, 2015. "Población y desarrollo en el Pacífico colombiano," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 232, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Soumaïla Ouedraogo, 2020. "Estimation of older adult mortality from imperfect data: A comparative review of methods using Burkina Faso censuses," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(38), pages 1119-1154.
    18. Alexander, Monica, 2018. "Deaths without denominators: using a matched dataset to study mortality patterns in the United States," SocArXiv q79ye, Center for Open Science.

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