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Death distribution methods for estimating adult mortality

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth Hill

    (Independent researcher)

  • Danzhen You

    (United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF))

  • Yoonjoung Choi

    (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health)

Abstract

TThe General Growth Balance (GGB) and Synthetic Extinct Generations (SEG) methods have been widely used to evaluate the coverage of registered deaths in developing countries. However, relatively little is known about how the methods behave in the presence of different data errors. This paper applies the methods (both singly and in combination) using non-stable populations of known mortality to which various data distortions in a variety of combinations have been applied. Results show that the methods work very well when the only errors in the data are those for which the methods were developed. For other types of error, performance is more variable, but on average, adjusted mortality estimates using the methods are closer to the true values than the unadjusted. The methods do surprisingly well in the presence of typical patterns of age misreporting, though GGB is more sensitive to coverage errors that change with age; the Basic SEG method (e.g. not adjusting for any slope with age of completeness estimates) is very sensitive to changes in census coverage; but once slope is adjusted for changing census, coverage has little effect. Fitting to the age range 5+ to 65+ is clearly preferable to fitting to 15+ to 55+. Both GGB and SEG are very sensitive to net migration, which is an Achilles heel for all of the methodologies in this paper. In populations not greatly affected by migration, our results suggest that an optimal strategy would be to apply GGB to estimate census coverage change, adjust for it and then apply SEG; in populations affected by migration, applying both GGB and SEG, fitting both to the age range 30+ to 65+, and averaging the results appears best.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth Hill & Danzhen You & Yoonjoung Choi, 2009. "Death distribution methods for estimating adult mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(9), pages 235-254.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:21:y:2009:i:9
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2009.21.9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Neil Bennett & Shiro Horiuchi, 1984. "Erratum to: Mortality estimation from registered deaths in less developed countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 21(4), pages 688-688, November.
    2. Neil Bennett & Shiro Horiuchi, 1984. "Mortality estimation from registered deaths in less developed countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 21(2), pages 217-233, May.
    3. Samuel Preston & Irma Elo & Andrew Foster & Haishan Fu, 1998. "Reconstructing the size of the African American population by age and sex, 1930–1990," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 35(1), pages 1-21, February.
    4. P. Bhat, 1990. "Estimating transition probabilities of age misstatement," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 27(1), pages 149-163, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Queiroz, Bernardo L & Lima, Everton & Gonzaga, Marcos Roberto & Freire, Flávio, 2018. "Adult Mortality Differentials and Regional Development at the local level in Brazil, 1980-2010," OSF Preprints szvtq, Center for Open Science.
    2. Kenneth Hill & Peter Johnson & Kavita Singh & Anthony Amuzu-Pharin & Yagya Kharki, 2018. "Using census data to measure maternal mortality: A review of recent experience," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(11), pages 337-364.
    3. Carl P. Schmertmann & Marcos R. Gonzaga, 2018. "Bayesian Estimation of Age-Specific Mortality and Life Expectancy for Small Areas With Defective Vital Records," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1363-1388, August.
    4. Dana Glei & Magali Barbieri & Carolina Santamaría-Ulloa, 2019. "Costa Rican mortality 1950‒2013: An evaluation of data quality and trends compared with other countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(29), pages 835-864.
    5. Queiroz, Bernardo L & Lima, Everton & Freire, Flávio & Gonzaga, Marcos Roberto, 2017. "Temporal and spatial estimates of adult mortality for small areas in Brazil, 1980-2010," OSF Preprints jk67t, Center for Open Science.
    6. Queiroz, Bernardo L & Lima, Everton, 2017. "National and subnational experience with estimating the extent and trend in completeness of registration of deaths in Brazil," OSF Preprints fgwxa, Center for Open Science.
    7. Queiroz, Bernardo L & Gonzaga, Marcos Roberto & Nogales, Ana Maria & Torrente, Bruno & de Abreu, Daisy Maria Xavier, 2019. "Life expectancy, adult mortality and completeness of death counts in Brazil and regions: comparative analysis of IHME, IBGE and other researchers estimates of levels and trends," OSF Preprints pj3sx, Center for Open Science.
    8. Gonzaga, Marcos Roberto & Queiroz, Bernardo L & Lima, Everton, 2017. "Compression of mortality: the evolution in the variability in the age of death in Latin America," OSF Preprints pdnfk, Center for Open Science.
    9. Soumaïla Ouedraogo, 2020. "Estimation of older adult mortality from imperfect data: A comparative review of methods using Burkina Faso censuses," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(38), pages 1119-1154.
    10. Cruz Castanheira, Helena & Monteiro da Silva, José H. C., 2023. "Handbook for the use of death distribution methods," Población y Desarrollo 48684, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    11. Pinheiro, Pedro Cisalpino & Queiroz, Bernardo L, 2018. "Regional Disparities in Brazilian Adult Mortality: an analysis using Modal Age at Death (M) and Compression of Mortality (IQR)," OSF Preprints t2ey3, Center for Open Science.
    12. Bruno Lankoandé & Bruno Masquelier & Pascal Zabre & Hélène Bangré & Géraldine Duthé & Abdramane B. Soura & Gilles Pison & Sié Ali, 2022. "Estimating mortality from census data: A record-linkage study of the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Burkina Faso," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 46(22), pages 653-680.
    13. Dana Glei & Andres Barajas Paz & Jose Manuel Aburto & Magali Barbieri, 2021. "Mexican mortality 1990‒2016: Comparison of unadjusted and adjusted estimates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(30), pages 719-758.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    adult mortality; estimation; simulation; death distribution methods; sensitivity analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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