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The impact of economic and political factors on popularity for France (1981-2014)

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  • Antoine Auberger

    (CRED - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Droit - UP2 - Université Panthéon-Assas)

Abstract

In this article, we study a popularity function for the French popularity political parties (1981Q2-2014Q4). We suppose that voters have a retrospective behaviour according to the responsibility hypothesis and we study if voters are naive or sophisticated. We show that, the unemployment rate has a significant influence on the popularity of the French political parties (closed economy, opened economy). We do not clearly show the interest for taking into account the openess of the economy. We also found unfavourable results for the asymmetry hypothesis. Then, we found slightly favourable results for the sophisticated voters hypothesis (assuming that voters distinguish trends and cycles for each economic variables). For the political variables, we show the significant influence of the honeymoon effect, the second order elections (regional or European), and the congresses of the Socialist party.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Auberger, 2015. "The impact of economic and political factors on popularity for France (1981-2014)," Working Papers halshs-01264983, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01264983
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01264983
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Antoine Auberger & Eric Dubois, 2005. "The influence of local and national economic conditions on French legislative elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 363-383, December.
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    10. Christophe Boya & Julien Malizard & Emin Agamaliyev, 2010. "Fonction de popularité, hypothèse de responsabilité et dynamique des partis. Le cas français," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 61(5), pages 859-873.
    11. Antoine Auberger, 2021. "Vote, popularity, unemployment and French presidential elections [Vote, popularité, chômage et élections présidentielles françaises]," Working Papers hal-03480855, HAL.
    12. John Maloney & Andrew Pickering, 2015. "Voting and the economic cycle," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 119-133, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antoine Auberger, 2020. "The impact of economic and political factors on popularity for France (1981- 2017)," Working Papers hal-02501677, HAL.

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