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Econometric Estimations of Popularity Functions: A Case Study for Austria

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  • Neck, Reinhard
  • Karbuz, Sohbet

Abstract

In this paper, the authors investigate the effects of changes in economic conditions on the popularity of political parties in Austria. After a brief description of the Austrian political system, the authors estimate single equations and simultaneous systems of popularity functions for different parties, based on traditional theoretical foundations. Results show that some effects of economic variables on popularity exist, although they are different between different policy regimes. Traditional popularity functions nevertheless outperform models based on the assumption of voters' rational expectations, which claim that only unexpected changes in economic conditions affect political popularity. Copyright 1997 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Neck, Reinhard & Karbuz, Sohbet, 1997. "Econometric Estimations of Popularity Functions: A Case Study for Austria," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 91(1), pages 57-88, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:91:y:1997:i:1:p:57-88
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Reinhard Neck & Friedrich Schneider, 2024. "The popularity function: a spurious regression? The case of Austria," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 298-329, February.
    2. Sören Enkelmann, 2014. "Government popularity and the economy: first evidence from German microdata," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 999-1017, May.
    3. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2016-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    4. Friedrich Schneider & Reinhard Neck & Michael M. Strugl, 2017. "How Much Does the State of the Economy Influence the Popularity of Austrian Parties? An Empirical Investigation," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 23(1), pages 107-121, February.
    5. Antoine Auberger, 2015. "The impact of economic and political factors on popularity for France (1981-2014)," Working Papers halshs-01264983, HAL.
    6. Antoine Auberger, 2011. "Popularity Functions for the French President and Prime Minister (1995-2007)," Working Papers halshs-00872313, HAL.
    7. Antoine Auberger, 2020. "The impact of economic and political factors on popularity for France (1981- 2017)," Working Papers hal-02501677, HAL.
    8. Aichholzer, Julian & Willmann, Johanna, 2014. "Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 55-64.
    9. Soeren Enkelmann, 2013. "Government Popularity and the Economy First Evidence from German Micro Data," Working Paper Series in Economics 274, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.

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